000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091558 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED JUL 09 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AT 1500 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF FAUSTO WERE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 11.7N129.5W MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS OPENED UP INTO A TROUGH AND IS UNLIKELY TO REFORM AS IT CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW 25 KT AND SEAS DIMINISH TO ABOUT 8 TO 9 FT WITHIN A DAY OR SO. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS WITHIN 300 NM SW SEMICIRCLE AND 60 NM NE SEMICIRCLE OF THE REMNANTS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LAST NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 08N ALONG 98W MOVING W AT AROUND 15-20 KT. THE WAVE LACK SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AND IS POORLY DEFINED AT THE SURFACE. THE WAVE IS APPARENT WITHIN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE SUNY-ALBANY TROPICAL TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM NE TO SW FROM 12N112W TO 20N108W MOVING W-NW AROUND 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO INCH CLOSER TO ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST 3-4 DEGREES TO THE W OF IT...AND THE TWO WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LOOSELY MERGED DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AS THEY SHIFT WESTWARD. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 14N117W WITH TROPICAL WAVE NE TO 20N112W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF LOW...AND WITHIN 120 NM OF WAVE AXIS. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR WAVES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY. THE LOW AND WAVE ARE WELL APPARENT IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...AND THE SUNY-ALBANY TROPICAL TROUGH DIAGNOSTICS. AS STATED ABOVE...THE TWO WAVES ARE LIKELY TO MERGE DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO 08N100W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...TO REMNANTS OF FAUSTO...CONTINUING ON BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF TROUGH BETWEEN 94W AND 103W AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF ITCZ 110W AND 115W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 46N142W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS IS FORCING A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF THE ITCZ WITH GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE NE TO E TRADEWINDS PREVAILING. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE STUBBORNLY PERSISTED 1017 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE OF DOUGLAS CONTINUES NEAR 27N127W AND DRIFTING SW. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE CENTER AND THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADEWINDS ARE INDUCING A GULF OF PAPAGAYO GAP WIND EVENT TODAY...THOUGH NO DIRECT OBSERVATIONS WERE AVAILABLE THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE LIKELY PULSING TO 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF...AND ARE EXPECTED TO DO SO EACH OF THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING TO 8-11 FT DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS. FORCING OF THIS EVENT SHOULD RELAX BY LATE SATURDAY. GULF TEHUANTEPEC...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PEAKS IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE. $$ LANDSEA