000 AXPZ20 KNHC 091005 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED JUL 09 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AT 0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAUSTO WAS ESTIMATED NEAR 11.4N128W MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY...MICROWAVE AND ASCAT DATA FROM OVERNIGHT SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF FAUSTO CONTINUES TO MOVE WNW AND REMAINS 90 TO 120 NM N OF THE MAIN AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION...AND MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM ACROSS THE SW QUADRANT...WHILE SCATTERED SMALL CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WERE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM OF THE CENTER. FAUSTO APPEARS TO BE LOSING ORGANIZATION...WITH THE BROADER LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BECOMING ELONGATED NE TO SW...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WNW TO W DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR FAUSTO TO REMAIN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO FAUSTO BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE WITHIN 48 TO 72 HOURS. A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE N AND NW OF FAUSTO WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A BROAD ZONE OF STRONG NE WINDS TO 25 KT BETWEEN FAUSTO AND 19N-20N DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 09N ALONG 97W MOVING W AT AROUND 15-20 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO LACK SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AND IS POORLY DEFINED AT THE SURFACE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM NE TO SW FROM 14N114W TO 19N109W MOVING W-NW AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM SE OF WAVE AXIS. THIS WAS CONTINUES TO INCH CLOSER TO ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST 3- 4 DEGREES TO THE W OF IT...AND THE TWO WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LOOSELY MERGED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THEY SHIFT WWD. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES NEAR 14N118W WITH TROPICAL WAVE NE TO 19N114W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF LOW...AND WITHIN 150 NM SE OF WAVE AXIS. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT WERE OCCURRING N OF THE LOW AND BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND THE WAVE TO ITS E...BUT RECENT ASCAT PASSES SHOW WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT AND SEAS LIKELY AT 7-8 FT. AS STATED ABOVE...THE TWO WAVE ARE LIKELY TO MERGE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N74W TO 07N78W TO 10N85W TO 06N102W...WHERE IT HAS BROKEN...THEN RESUMES FROM LOW PRES NEAR 14N118W TO 13.5N123W...WHERE IT BREAKS AGAIN...THEN RESUMES FROM SW OF FAUSTO NEAR 09N132W TO 08.5N134W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210 NM N AND 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 132W AND 134W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 44N143W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND SOUTHWARD TO THE ITCZ. THIS IS PRODUCING SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT N OF THE ITCZ TO PRODUCE A ZONE OF FRESH NE TO E TRADEWINDS S OF 18N AND W OF 130W. THIS AREA OF TRADES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN TACT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS FAUSTO...OR ITS REMNANTS...MOVE W THROUGH THE AREA. THE 1017 MB REMNANT LOW PRES OF DOUGLAS IS ANALYZED NEAR 26.5N127W AND DRIFTING SW. NO CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER WITH A BROKEN-OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS LAYER WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS WITH A REMNANT TROUGH DISSIPATING BY 48 HOURS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS ARE PULSING TO 20-25 KT OVERNIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF...AND ARE EXPECTED TO DO SO EACH OF THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING TO 8-10 FT DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS. GULF TEHUANTEPEC...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ON LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...AND AGAIN LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. $$ STRIPLING