000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090248 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED JUL 09 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO WAS CENTERED NEAR 11.0N 126.5W OR ABOUT 1190 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 0300 UTC JUL 09 MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM IN THE...330 NM IN THE SW AND BETWEEN 45 AND 180 NM IN THE NW QUADRANTS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 129W AND 132W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF FAUSTO HAS BECOME COMPLETELY EXPOSED RACING OFF TO THE NW AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. FAUSTO IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY OR SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER WARM WATERS WITH LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THEREAFTER IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER WITH INCREASING SHEAR ALOFT. MEANWHILE THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE TIGHT ON THE NW SIDE OF FAUSTO BETWEEN THE SYSTEM AND SURFACE RIDGING TO THE N WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE-E TRADES UNTIL FAUSTO MOVES W OF 140W AND ALSO WEAKENS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 08N ALONG 97W MOVING W AT AROUND 15-20 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO LACK SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AND IS POORLY DEFINED AT THE SURFACE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM NE TO SW FROM 20N108W TO 15N111W MOVING W AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 108W AND 111W. THIS WAVE IS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 19N109W WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO HELP MAINTAIN CONVECTION ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N114W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 13N114W WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM IN THE NE AND 150 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLES OF THE LOW. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT WERE OCCURRING IN THE NE QUADRANT BUT THESE WINDS AND SEAS HAVE LIKELY DIMINISHED AND SUBSIDED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE WAVE BECOMING A REMNANT TROUGH BY 48 HOURS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO 06N96W THEN RESUMES FROM LOW PRES NEAR 13N114W TO 12N124W THEN RESUMES FROM 10N128W TO 07N133W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N133W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W. ...DISCUSSION... THE 1015 MB REMNANT LOW PRES OF DOUGLAS IS ANALYZED NEAR 27N126W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. NO CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER WITH A BROKEN-OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS LAYER WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. EARLIER ASCAT DATA SHOWED 5-15 KT OF WIND IN THE AREA WHILE AN EARLIER ALTIMETER PASS SAMPLED 4-6 FT SEAS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS WITH A REMNANT TROUGH DISSIPATING BY 48 HOURS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO 20-25 KT DURING THE NEXT FEW LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING TO 8-10 FT DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS. GULF TEHUANTEPEC...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ON LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...AND AGAIN LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. $$ LEWITSKY