000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082154 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE JUL 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO WAS CENTERED NEAR 10.0N 124.6W OR ABOUT 1143 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 2100 UTC JUL 08 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 270 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 128W AND 131W. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF FAUSTO REMAINS NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS WITH THE CIRCULATION POORLY DEFINED ON THE WESTERN SIDE. FAUSTO WILL BE OVER WARM SSTS AND LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THEN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR ALOFT. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE TIGHT ON THE NW SIDE OF FAUSTO BETWEEN THE SYSTEM AND SURFACE RIDGING TO THE N WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA OF NE-E FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ON THE NW SIDE UNTIL FAUSTO MOVES W OF 140W AND ALSO WEAKENS. A 1824 UTC ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED A SWATH OF FRESH TO STRONG SE-S WINDS EXTENDING WELL AWAY FROM FAUSTO ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE STORM WHICH IS SUPPORTING 8-9 FT SEAS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF 08N ALONG 95W MOVING W AT ABOUT 20 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO LACK SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AND IS POORLY DEFINED AT THE SURFACE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM NE TO SW FROM 19N105W TO 13N110W AND IS MOVING NW AT AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 108W AND 111W. THIS WAVE IS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 19N109W AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N113W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 14N113W WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE OF LOW PRES NEAR 14N113W. A 1642 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS WITHIN 240 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT WHERE SEAS ARE ALSO LIKELY UP TO 8 FT. THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NW AROUND 5-10 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... DISSIPATING BY 36 HOURS WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE BECOMING A REMNANT TROUGH BY 48-72 HOURS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N99W THEN RESUMES FROM 15N110W TO LOW PRES NEAR 14N113W TO 12N123W THEN RESUMES FROM 09N126W TO 08N132W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N132W TO BEYOND 07N140W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 94W AND 99W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 115W AND 118W. ALSO...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 23N TO 26N UNDER UPPER DIFFLUENCE WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NW MEXICO NEAR 30N109W TO AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 19N109W. ...DISCUSSION... THE 1015 MB REMNANT LOW PRES OF DOUGLAS IS ANALYZED NEAR 27N126W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. NO CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER WITH A BROKEN-OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS LAYER WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. RECENT ASCAT DATA SHOWED 5-15 KT OF WIND IN THE AREA WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS SAMPLED 4-6 FT SEAS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS WITH A REMNANT TROUGH DISSIPATING BY 48 HOURS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A 1502 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS NEAR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BUT SOME RESIDUAL 8-9 FT SEAS IN MIXED NE-E AND S SWELL REMAINS FROM LAST NIGHTS/THIS EARLY MORNING FRESH TO STRONG WIND EVENT. THESE SEAS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS RETURNING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY WED. WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN TO FRESH TO STRONG LEVELS WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. GULF TEHUANTEPEC...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ON LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...AND AGAIN LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. $$ LEWITSKY