000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081554 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE JUL 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO WAS CENTERED NEAR 09.7N 123.2W...OR ABOUT 1100 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AT 1500 UTC JUL 08 MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. CURRENTLY SCATTERED TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER BUT ONLY OVER THE S SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NW OF CENTER ALONG BAND WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09.5N125W TO 11N125W TO 12N124W. THE CENTER OF FAUSTO IS NOT WELL DEFINED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND MAY BE RE-LOCATED LATER TODAY AS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY BECOMES AVAILABLE. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST FOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING SYSTEM. FAUSTO LOW LEVEL 20-33 KT CIRCULATION TO THE OUTSIDE THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE RADII IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY EXPAND OUT FROM 75 NM TO 150 NM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ADDITIONALLY THE GRADIENT OVER THE TROPICS W OF FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN NE 15-20 KT NE TRADES WITH SEAS TO 8 FT UNTIL FAUSTO MOVES W OF 140W. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC. ...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS... A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOTED N OF 10N ALONG 93W AND HAS BEEN PROGRESSING AT ABOUT 20 KT THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE WAVE CURRENTLY LACKS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED TO THE N OF 13N BETWEEN 102-105W. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 13.5N TO 19N BETWEEN 100-107W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED JUST TO THE N NEAR 22N109W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 14N101W...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ALONG THE TROPICAL THROUGH TONIGHT. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE AT 12N113W WITH THE WAVE EXTENDING N TO NEAR 20N112W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. E TO SE WINDS ARE AT 15-20 KT WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN MIXING N AND S SWELL. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE W TO NEAR 15N118W ON WED WITH THE PRESSURE INCREASING TO ABOUT 1009 MB. BY THEN... EXPECTING ONLY A 10-15 KT NE-E-SE WIND SHIFT WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT. THE LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE ON WED NIGHT WHILE THE WAVE CONTINUES WESTWARD. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W ALONG 10N ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN CROSSING EXTREME NW PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 09N84W...THEN TURNS SW TO 06N102W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY. THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES NEAR 14N106W AND CONTINUES SW THROUGH AN EMBEDDED 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE AT 13N113W. THE MONSOON FLOW IS INTERRUPTED BETWEEN 115W-125W BY THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO. THE MONSOON TROUGH THEN RESUMES SW OF FAUSTO NEAR 10N126W AND WIGGLES SW TO 09N131W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH IN TURN CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED MOVING OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WELL TO THE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH... FROM 03N TO 07N TO THE E OF 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 88W-96W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITS EMBEDDED LOW PRESSURE CENTER...WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N108W TO 09N117W...AND N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N116W TO 11N130W. ...DISCUSSION... THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE OF DOUGLAS WAS ANALYZED NEAR 27N127.5W THIS MORNING AND DRIFTING W. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1015 MB. THE LOW IS SURROUNDED BY 10-15 KT CYCLONIC WINDS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER IN A BROKEN-OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS LAYER WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN LOSING IDENTITY ON WED. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE-E WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE ACROSS...AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EACH NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. GULF TEHUANTEPEC...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ON FRI NIGHT. $$ NELSON