000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080942 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1030 UTC TUE JUL 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO WAS CENTERED NEAR 9.5N 122.2W...OR 1045 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AT 0900 UTC JUL 08 MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. THE 0502 UTC AND 0548 UTC ASCAT PASSES SHOWED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SE QUADRANT OF CENTER. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE ASCAT PASSES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF FAUSTO REMAINS ON THE NW EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHERE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM ACROSS THE SE SEMICIRCLE...AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING IN BROKEN BANDS FROM 75 TO 360 NM ACROSS THE NE QUADRANT. FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO TAKE A TURN TOWARD THE W-NW TODAY AND CONTINUE ON THAT TRAJECTORY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ADDITIONAL MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG 91W AND MOVING W AROUND 20 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO ALONG 98W- 99W MOVING W AROUND 10 KT. A SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS WAVE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE OFF TO THE W ACROSS THE EPAC...AND WAS ALONG ABOUT 108W...MOVING W-NW AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 101W AND 108W. THIS PORTION OF THE WAVE CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER THE E SIDE OF A BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE JUST AHEAD ALONG 111W-112W...AND IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONVERGENCE AND ACTIVE CONVECTION THERE. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 111W-112W FROM 08N TO 17N. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AROUND 15 KT...WITH A BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BETWEEN 106W AND 1115W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING FROM 09N TO 16N BETWEEN 108W AND 117W. A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT FROM 12N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 107W AND 111W...WHERE SEAS WERE 7 TO 9 FT. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE W-NW OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE NE PORTIONS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AXIS FROM 09N74W TO 07N79W TO 08N86W TO 06N96.5W TO 11N105W...WHERE IT HAS BROKEN. THE TROUGH RESUMES W OF T.S. FAUSTO NEAR 09.5N125W TO 08N133W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 03N TO 08N E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 101W AND 107W. ...DISCUSSION... POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW DOUGLAS WAS ANALYZED NEAR 27N126W AND WAS MOVING W AROUND 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1012 MB AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE BELIEVED AROUND 15 KT. THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF DOUGLAS AS WELL AS BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 111W-112W HAS TRANSPORTED ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS MOISTURE HAS FUELED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ON THE W SIDE OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL...WITH LINGERING SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 21N TO 27.5N. THE REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS ARE FORECAST TO FINALLY DISSIPATE TODAY AS IT CONTINUES MOVING NW INTO AN AREA OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR ON THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW. A 1026 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR 39N147W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE THROUGH 32N126W AND 30N123W. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER NW WATERS HAS DISRUPTED THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGING OVER THE AREA AND THE REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS HAVE FURTHER WEAKENED THE SURFACE RIDGING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IS ONLY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N W OF 118W AS A RESULT. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY WED AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER NW WATERS. TRADE WINDS...ESPECIALLY TO THE N OF TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO...ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AS A RESULT. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS INCREASED THE TRADE WINDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE PACIFIC AND ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 25 KT WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THU EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS. $$ STRIPLING