000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080244 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0430 UTC TUE JUL 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO WAS NEAR 9.6N 120.7W...OR 1010 NM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AT 0300 UTC JUL 08 MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. THE 1704 UTC AND 1758 UTC ASCAT PASSES SHOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE SE QUADRANT OF CENTER. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM S SEMICIRCLE. THE CURRENT W MOTION OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUE...FOLLOWING BY A TURN TOWARD THE W-NW ON WED. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC ANALYZED ALONG 86W AND MOVING W AROUND 20 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO INTO THE PACIFIC N OF 15N. IT IS MOVING W AROUND 10 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 111W FROM 09N TO 17N. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS E OF THE WAVE TO 104W FROM 09N TO 12N AND E OF THE WAVE TO 100W FROM 12N TO 17N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N83W TO 07N91W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 07N91W TO 07N93W 13N108W. THE MONSOON TROUGH THEN CONTINUES FROM 09N124W TO 08N132W...AND THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 08N132W TO 06N140W. ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 111W AND TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW DOUGLAS WAS ANALYZED NEAR 27N125.5W AND WAS MOVING NW AROUND 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1012 MB AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE BELIEVED AROUND 15 KT. THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF DOUGLAS AS WELL AS BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 111W HAS TRANSPORTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS MOISTURE IS FUELING EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ON THE W SIDE OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 23N TO 29N AS WELL AS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA. THE REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TUE AS IT CONTINUES MOVING NW INTO AN AREA OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR ON THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW. A 1026 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR 38N143W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE THROUGH 32N126W AND 31N123W TO 20N110W. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER NW WATERS HAS DISRUPTED THE DEEP- LAYER RIDGING OVER THE AREA AND THE REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS HAVE FURTHER WEAKENED THE SURFACE RIDGING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IS ONLY TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY MODERATE TRADE WINDS AS A RESULT. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY WED AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER NW WATERS. TRADE WINDS...ESPECIALLY TO THE N OF TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO...ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AS A RESULT. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1702 UTC SHOWS A FRESH TO STRONG E-SE BREEZE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 102W-106W. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N IS GENERATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 111W. THIS AREA OF WIND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WESTWARD AWAY TO THE S OF THE REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS INCREASED THE TRADE WINDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE PACIFIC AND ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 25 KT WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST WED EVENING. $$ SCHAUER