000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072149 CCA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON JUL 07 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. CORRECTED FOR VALID TIME BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE 1704 UTC AND 1758 UTC ASCAT PASSES SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SE QUADRANT OF A 1005 MB LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 09N119W. A GALE WARNING WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. THE LOW HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW WITH ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 390 NM N QUADRANT. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING W AROUND 10 KT AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE W-NW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDS S INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG 96W N OF 15N. THE WAVE IS MOVING W AROUND 5 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 110W FROM 09N TO 17N. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED NEAR THE WAVE FROM 11N TO 16N E OF THE WAVE TO 99W AS WELL AS FROM 07N TO 11N E OF THE WAVE TO 103W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N82W TO 06N91W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 06N91W TO 13N85W. MONSOON TROUGH THEN CONTINUES FROM 09N123W TO 08N132W. ITCZ AXIS THEN CONTINUES FROM 08N132W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 90W. ...DISCUSSION... POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW DOUGLAS WAS ANALYZED NEAR 27N125W AND WAS MOVING NW AROUND 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1012 MB AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE BELIEVED AROUND 15 KT. THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF DOUGLAS AS WELL AS BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 110W HAS TRANSPORTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS MOISTURE IS FUELING EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ON THE W SIDE OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA. THE REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TUE AS IT CONTINUES MOVING NW INTO AN AREA OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR ON THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW. A 1025 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR 36N136W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE THROUGH 32N126W AND 31N123W TO 20N110W. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER NW WATERS HAS DISRUPTED THE DEEP- LAYER RIDGING OVER THE AREA AND THE REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS HAVE FURTHER WEAKENED THE SURFACE RIDGING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IS ONLY TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY MODERATE TRADE WINDS AS A RESULT. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY WED AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER NW WATERS. TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO A FRESH BREEZE AS A RESULT. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1702 UTC SHOWS A FRESH TO STRONG E-SE BREEZE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 102W-106W. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE N IS GENERATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 110W. THIS AREA OF WIND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE WAVE CONTINUES WESTWARD AWAY TO THE S OF THE REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS INCREASED THE TRADE WINDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE PACIFIC AND ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 25 KT WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST WED AFTERNOON. $$ SCHAUER