000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071557 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON JUL 07 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A LOW 1008 MB LOW PRES CENTER IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS NEAR 10N106W MOVING WNW AT 13 KT. THIS LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES LOW PRES LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE LOW...ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NE SEMICIRCLE. SOME POSSIBLE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDS S INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG 96W N OF 15N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 14N96W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N111W TO 11N109W MOVING NEAR 17 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE WAVE S OF 13N. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N123W TO A 1007 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH AT 10N119W. THIS SYSTEM WAS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W NEAR 18 KT DURING THE PAST 24 HRS...BUT HAS SLOWED DOWN OVER THE PAST 6-12 HRS TO AROUND 15 KT. THE LOW AND WAVE ARE UNDER A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT FOUND TO THE SE OF THE ANTICYCLONE AT 19N125W. THIS IS HELPING TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION ALONG AND WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE WAVE. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM OF THE LOW IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS MAY INTENSIFY SOME OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD MOTION. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N91W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N91W TO 10N100W TO 13N106W TO 11N110W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS AGAIN FROM 11N110W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N119W 1007 MB TO 10N125W TO 09N133W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 06N140W.10N124W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N124W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N131W 1010 MB TO 06N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 101W-105W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 05N106W TO 05N110W. ...DISCUSSION... IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT OVER THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE AREA ROUGHLY BETWEEN 120W AND 129W WITH THE PARENT ANTICYCLONE SITUATED AT 19N125W. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS BEING IMPINGED UPON BY BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO ITS NW WITH THE ASSOCIATED CYCLONE AT 28N137W. TO THE E OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...A SMALL ANTICYCLONE IS SEEN NEAR 19N114W. TO ITS NE...THE TAIL END OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW ACROSS MEXICO...AND TO NEAR 15N106W. DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH IS HELPING TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ AS MENTIONED ABOVE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS THE DEMARCATION LINE BETWEEN A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS FOUND TO THE W OF A LINE FROM NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 10N126W...AND A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO THE E OF THE SAME LINE. A THE SURFACE...THE POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW DOUGLAS IS NEAR 27N125.5W WITH PRES OF 1011 MB. THE LOW HAS NO DEEP CONVECTION WITH IT. ONLY A SWIRL OF OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS IS NOTED WITHIN ITS CENTER. TO ITS SE...A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 22N122W. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK HIGH PRES PRESENT TO THE N OF 18N AND W OF 115W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS THAT HAD FORMED ALONG THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO N OF MANZANILLO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SW UNDER NE FLOW TO JUST ALONG THAT SAME COAST OVER THE PAST FEW HRS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY WEAKENED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONE CLUSTER SITUATED WITHIN 30 NM OF 22N106W. THE PRES GRADIENT N OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS RATHER WEAK LAX...AND CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO GENTLE TRADE WINDS. THE UPPER CYCLONE AT 28N137W IS FORECAST TO LIFT NE OF THE AREA BY TUE EVENING...WHILE THE POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW WEAKENS AS STATED ABOVE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD SEWD OVER MUCH OF THE NW AND CENTRAL PORTIONS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR TRADES TO INCREASE TO A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN HALF W AND NW OF THE LOW PRESENTLY NEAR 10N119W BY LATE TUE NIGHT. IF THIS LOW WERE TO INTENSIFY THEN THE TRADES WILL BECOME STRONGER. CROSS-EQUATORIAL S-SW SWELL CURRENTLY FOUND ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...TRADES WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE PACIFIC AND ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 25 KT WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH WED NIGHT. $$ AGUIRRE