000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070241 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON JUL 07 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH CENTRAL PANAMA AND EMERGES INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 80W EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO 06N. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AROUND 25 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 30 NM E AND 270 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 06N TO 00N...INCLUDING OVER WESTERN PANAMA. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N OF 11N ALONG 95W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AROUND 25 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FOUND OVER AN EXPANSIVE AREA FROM 03N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 106W FROM 10N TO 18N. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AROUND 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS PRIMARILY FOUND S OF THE WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 99W AND 119W WHILE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 240 NM W OF WAVE FROM 11N TO 15N. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 18N115W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 10N116W. THE WAVE IS MOVING W AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 240 NM E OF THE WAVE FROM 13N TO 16N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 330 NM SW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 10N116W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N83W TO 10N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N116W 1008 MB TO 09N120W TO 10N124W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N124W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N131W 1010 MB TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 240 NM SE QUADRANT AND 180 NM SW QUADRANT OF THE LOW NEAR 09N131W. ...DISCUSSION... POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW DOUGLAS WAS ANALYZED NEAR 26.5N124W AND WAS MOVING NW AROUND 5-10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1012 MB AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE AROUND 25 KT IN THE NW QUADRANT. THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF DOUGLAS AS WELL AS BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 116W HAVE TRANSPORTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS MOISTURE IS FUELING EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ON THE W SIDE OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND INTO THE SE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS OVER THE SW UNITED STATES. THE REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TUE AS IT CONTINUES MOVING NW INTO AN AREA OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR ON THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW. A 1024 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR 35N134W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE THROUGH 32N126W AND 29N117W TO 20N111W. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER NW WATERS HAS DISRUPTED THE DEEP- LAYER RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IS ONLY TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO GENTLE TRADE WINDS AS A RESULT. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TO NEAR 32N OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER NW WATERS. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE AS A RESULT. CROSS-EQUATORIAL S-SW SWELL CURRENTLY FOUND ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO HAS DAMPENED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH PERIODS NOW GENERALLY IN THE 15-17 SECOND RANGE. CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY IMPROVING...BUT LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE STILL FOUND ALONG THE BEACHES AND REEF LINES. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR NOW. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1635 UTC SHOWS A FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY BREEZE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 100W-103W. RIDGING IN PLACE BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVES NEAR 95W AND 106W IS GENERATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. WHILE THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON INCREASING THE SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER CENTRAL WATERS. SOME SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HERE. REGARDLESS...AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG E- SE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NW WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS INCREASED THE TRADE WINDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE PACIFIC AND ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 25 KT WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST TUE EVENING. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WHILE THE ASCAT PASSES FROM 1542 UTC AND 1636 UTC SHOWED A STRONG N BREEZE AS FAR S AS 14.5N IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW A STRONG BREEZE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW 8 FT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER TONIGHT. $$ SCHAUER