000 AXPZ20 KNHC 062155 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN JUL 06 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH EASTERN PANAMA AND IS EMERGING INTO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 79W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE LIES OVER SE PANAMA. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC N OF 14N ALONG 94W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR 25 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NOTED NEAR THIS WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM NEAR 18N105W TO 10N105W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W AROUND 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS PRIMARILY FOUND S OF THE WAVE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 99W AND 119W WHILE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 240 NM W OF WAVE FROM 11N TO 15N. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 18N114W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N115W WITH THE WAVE MOVING W AROUND 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM W AND NW QUADRANTS OF LOW PRES NEAR 11N115W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 240 NM E AND 90 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 12N TO 17N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO 11N102W TO 10N110W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N115W 1009 MB TO 08N120W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N120W TO 08N124W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N131W 1010 MB TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS S OF THE AXIS TO 04N E OF 86W AS WELL AS S OF THE AXIS TO 05N BETWEEN 121W AND 126W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 270 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 97W AND 102W. ...DISCUSSION... POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW DOUGLAS WAS ANALYZED NEAR 26N124W AND WAS MOVING NW AROUND 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1011 MB AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE AROUND 25 KT IN THE NW QUADRANT. ASCAT PASSES FROM 1720 UTC AND 1814 UTC SHOW WINDS ONLY AS HIGH AS 15 KT OUTSIDE OF 60 NM E SEMICIRCLE. THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF DOUGLAS AS WELL AS BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 115W HAS TRANSPORTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING NEAR 2 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE GULF. THIS MOISTURE IS FUELING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON THE W SIDE OF THE SPINE OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AS WELL AS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT CONTINUES MOVING NW INTO AN AREAS OF FRONT SOUTHERLY SHEAR ON THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW. A 1024 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR 35N133W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE THROUGH 32N126W AND 29N117W TO 20N111W. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER NW WATERS HAS DISRUPTED THE DEEP- LAYER RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TO NEAR 32N OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IS ONLY TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO GENTLE TRADE WINDS AS A RESULT. CROSS-EQUATORIAL S-SW SWELL CURRENTLY FOUND ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO HAS DAMPENED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH PERIODS NOW IN THE 15-18 SECOND RANGE. CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY IMPROVING...BUT LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE STILL FOUND ALONG THE BEACHES AND REEF LINES. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR NOW. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1635 UTC SHOWS A FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY BREEZE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 100W-103W. RIDGING IN PLACE BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVES NEAR 94W AND 105W IS GENERATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. WHILE THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON INCREASING THE SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH OVER CENTRAL WATERS. SOME SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HERE. REGARDLESS...AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG E- SE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NW WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS INCREASED THE TRADE WINDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE PACIFIC AND ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 25 KT WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH TUE. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 94W...JUST E OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ARE SENDING NORTHERLY WINDS INTO CHIVELA PASS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THEY ARE ACCELERATING AS THEY FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ASCAT PASSES FROM 1542 UTC AND 1636 UTC SHOWED A STRONG N BREEZE AS FAR S AS 14.5N. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N BEGINS TO WEAKEN. $$ SCHAUER