000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061455 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SUN JUL 06 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1415 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS EXTENDS ALONG 91W N OF 12N TO INLAND OVER GUATEMALA MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. UPPER RIDGING IS ACROSS THIS WAVE AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 89W TO 92W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N104W TO 10N105W MOVING W 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WELL DEFINED INVERTED V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN THE UPPER LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 97W AND THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS 18N112W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N114W WITH THE WAVE MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. BROAD LOW LEVEL ROTATION OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N TO 16N BETWEEN 111W AND 121W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N84W TO 08N97W. ITCZ FROM 10N106W TO 11N113W THEN RESUMES W OF LOW/TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N116W TO 08N120W TO JUST E OF THE LOW NEAR 09N128W THEN RESUMES NEAR 08N131W TO 06N140W. THE ITCZ IS DISRUPTED BY A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 09N129W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 08N E OF 82W TO COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 95W TO 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 122W TO 138W. ...DISCUSSION... THE REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS IS A SWIRL OF LOW/MID CLOUDS CENTERED NEAR 26N123W AT 1010 MB AND MOVING NW NEAR 10 KT. THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF DOUGLAS TRANSPORTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS MOISTURE FUELED LAST NIGHTS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL...BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND THE SW UNITED STATES. THE REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY AS IT CONTINUES MOVING NW AND THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. A 1023 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS CENTERED NEAR 33N134W AND EXTENDS A WEAK RIDGE TO N PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IS ONLY SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N AND W OF 126W. TRADE WINDS THERE WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS NW AND STRENGTHENS AND THE REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS DISSIPATE. AN UPPER LOW OVER NW WATERS NEAR 16N138W HAS DISRUPTED THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA GRADUALLY LIFTING N BY TUE. VERY STRONG CROSS-EQUATORIAL S-SW SWELL THAT HAS BLANKETED SE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS BEGINNING TO RELAX AS THE SWELLS MOVE IN FROM THE NE. THIS SWELL TRAIN THAT HAS PRODUCED WAVE PERIODS OF 19-22 SECOND OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS WEAKENED TO TO 17-19 SECOND. LARGE BREAKING WAVES COULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING ALONG THE BEACHES AND REEF LINES...AND COULD PRODUCE VERY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THIS SWELL CONTINUES TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS INCREASED THE TRADE WINDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PULSE WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. THESE WINDS COULD REACH STRONG BREEZE AT NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WINDS FUNNELED THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS THEY EXIT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS LEADING TO WEAKENING WINDS ACROSS BOTH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THIS AFTERNOON. $$ PAW