000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060931 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SUN JUL 06 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 114W WITH 1008 MB LOW NEAR 10N114W ALONG THE BASE OF THE WAVE. THE WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 270 NM ACROSS THE W SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE WEAK LOW REMAINING ALONG THE BASE OF THE WAVE. AS THE LOW CROSSES 120W MON EVENING...AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NW PORTIONS OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION WILL INCREASE NE WINDS THERE TO AROUND 20 KT. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 103W AND HAS ACCELERATED ITS WESTWARD MOTION TO 15 TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING FROM 10N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 97W AND 106W. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND GRADUALLY BEGIN TO MERGE INTO THE E FLANKS OF THE BROADER LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 114W. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE BASIN ALONG ABOUT 90W AND EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE WAVE HAS INDUCED A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 92W AND 101W. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS WAVE WILL FRACTURE FROM THE PORTION ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY AND CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AS A MODEST PERTURBATION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N74W TO 10N84W TO 06N93W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N114W 1008 MB...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ... CONTINUING ON TO 07N120W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N129W 1010 MB TO 06N136W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 126W AND 135W. ...DISCUSSION... POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW DOUGLAS WAS CENTERED NEAR 25N122.5W AT 1010 MB AND MOVING NW AROUND 10 KT. A RECENT ASCAT PASS CAPTURED THE CIRCULATION OF THIS LOW AND SHOWED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DIMINISH TO 25 KT. THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF DOUGLAS TRANSPORTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING OVER 2 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE GULF. THIS MOISTURE FUELED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL...BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND THE SW UNITED STATES. THE REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT CONTINUES MOVING NW AND THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. A 1024 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS CENTERED NEAR 35N132W AND EXTENDS A WEAK RIDGE TO N PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AN UPPER LOW OVER NW WATERS HAS DISRUPTED THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ IS ONLY SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 20N AND W OF 126W. TRADES THERE WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS NW AND STRENGTHENS AND THE REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS DISSIPATE. VERY STRONG CROSS-EQUATORIAL S-SW SWELL HAS BLANKETED THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO WITH WAVE PERIODS IN THE 17-20 SECOND RANGE. LARGE BREAKING WAVES CONTINUE THIS MORNING ALONG THE BEACHES AND REEF LINES...AND ARE PRODUCING VERY DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THIS SWELL GRADUALLY DIMINISHES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS INCREASED THE TRADE WINDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE PACIFIC AND ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 25 KT WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH MON. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE WINDS 15- 20 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...OCCURRING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THESE WINDS ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND ACCELERATING TO 30 KT AS THEY EXIT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...LEADING TO WEAKENING WINDS ACROSS BOTH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THIS AFTERNOON. $$ STRIPLING