000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060245 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SUN JUL 06 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED NEAR 99W N OF 09N THROUGH ACAPULCO MEXICO AND CONTINUES INLAND. THE WAVE IS MOVING W AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS OVER LAND WITHIN 90 NM W OF WAVE FROM 16N TO 20N AND WITHIN 120 NM E OF WAVE FROM 16N TO 18N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 180 NM AND 420 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 09N TO 14N. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 112W FROM 09N TO 19N MOVING AROUND W 20 TO 25 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM W OF WAVE FROM 09N TO 18N. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EMERGING INTO THE PACIFIC ALONG 86W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING AROUND 20 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED NEAR THIS WAVE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 110N84W TO 08N93W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N112W 1008 MB TO 08N120W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N129W 1010 MB TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS S OF THE AXIS TO 04N BETWEEN 89W AND 97W AS WELL AS WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 122W AND 129W AS WELL AS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 132W AND 137W. ...DISCUSSION... POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW DOUGLAS WAS ANALYZED NEAR 25N122W AND WAS MOVING NW AROUND 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO HAVE DIMINISH TO 25 KT. THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF DOUGLAS TRANSPORTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING OVER 2 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE GULF. THIS MOISTURE IS FUELING EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL...BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND THE SW UNITED STATES. THE REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT CONTINUES MOVING NW AND THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. A 1024 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR 34N132W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE THROUGH 32N125W AND 30N1117W TO 1015 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 23N113W. AN UPPER LOW OVER NW WATERS HAS DISRUPTED THE DEEP- LAYER RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ IS ONLY TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY GENTLE TRADE WINDS AS A RESULT. A CROSS-EQUATORIAL S-SW SWELL TRAIN HAS BLANKETED THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO WITH PERIODS IN THE 17-20 SECOND RANGE. LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE FOUND ALONG THE BEACHES AND REEF LINES. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE IN PLACE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THIS SWELL GRADUALLY DIMINISHES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS INCREASED THE TRADE WINDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE PACIFIC AND ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 25 KT WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH MON. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS SENDING NORTHERLY WINDS INTO CHIVELA PASS WHERE THEY ARE ACCELERATING AS THEY FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE NEAR GALE FORCE...BUT THERE ARE NO OBSERVATIONS TO CONFIRM THESE CONDITONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW A STRONG BREEZE BY SUN AFTERNOON. $$ SCHAUER