000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052149 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT JUL 05 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED NEAR 97W N OF 09N TO INLAND OVER MEXICO MOVING W AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED 110W FROM 10N TO 20N MOVING AROUND W 20 TO 25 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 15N TO 18N AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 10N TO 14N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 11N85W TO 07N97W TO 10N110W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N110W TO 07N121W TO 10N133W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS S OF THE AXIS FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 87W AND 95W AND FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 81W AND 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 101W AND 109W....WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 133W AND 139W...AND S OF THE AXIS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 123W AND 130W. ...DISCUSSION... POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW DOUGLAS WAS ANALYZED NEAR 24N121W AND WAS MOVING NW AROUND 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO REMAIN NEAR 30 KT. THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. THE LAST TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY WAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 05/1500 UTC. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF DOUGLAS HAS TRANSPORTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE GULF. THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HELP FUEL THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND THE SW UNITED STATES LATER THIS EVENING. THE REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT CONTINUES MOVING NW AND THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. A 1023 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR 34N132W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE THROUGH 32N124W AND 30N1117W TO NEAR 21N111W. AN UPPER LOW OVER NW WATERS HAS DISRUPTED THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ IS ONLY TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRIMARILY GENTLE TRADE WINDS AS A RESULT. A CROSS-EQUATORIAL S-SW SWELL TRAIN HAS BLANKETED THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO WITH PERIODS IN THE 17-21 SECOND RANGE. LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE FOUND ALONG THE BEACHES AND REEF LINES. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE IN PLACE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THIS SWELL GRADUALLY DIMINISHES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A STRONG ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS INCREASED THE TRADE WINDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE PACIFIC AND ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE TO 25 KT WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH MON. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NE MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO SEND NORTHERLY WINDS INTO CHIVELA PASS TONIGHT WHERE THEY WILL ACCELERATE AS THEY FUNNEL INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR GALE FORCE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW A STRONG BREEZE BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. $$ SCHAUER