000 AXPZ20 KNHC 051501 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT JUL 05 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1415 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AT 05/1500 UTC. THE REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS ARE CENTERED NEAR 23.7N 120.1W...OR ABOUT 565 NM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 05/1500 UTC MOVING NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WAS AT 05/1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 96W/97W N OF 12N TO INLAND OVER MEXICO MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N TO MEXICO COAST BETWEEN 97W AND 103W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 109W FROM 11N TO 20N MOVING W 20 TO 25 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 105W AND 110W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 07N82W TO 08N101W TO 10N112W TO 09N127W TO 10N133W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N133W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 06N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 78W AND 95W...FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 95W AND 118W...FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 120W TO 132W...AND WITHIN 75 NM OF ITCZ W OF 136W TO BEYOND 140W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1022 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 34N132W AND EXTENDS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE SE TO JUST W OF REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS NEAR 23N127W. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM S CALIFORNIA THROUGH 32N128W TO BEYOND 21N140W HAS DISRUPTED THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED FORM A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LATER TODAY WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH TUE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ONLY SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 25N W OF 125W. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF DOUGLAS REMNANTS HAS TRANSPORTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE JUST INLAND OVER MEXICO BETWEEN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAINS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 23N TO OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 27N. STRONG CROSS-EQUATORIAL S-SW SWELL HAS REACHED THE COASTS FROM COLOMBIA AND PANAMA THROUGH MEXICO TO THE ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 30N AND INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 27N... WITH WAVE PERIODS IN THE 19-22 SECOND RANGE. THESE SWELLS COULD PRODUCE LARGE BREAKING WAVES ALONG THE BEACHES AND REEF LINES WITH DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS BUILT WESTWARD TO THE S OF ATLANTIC STORM ARTHUR...INCREASING THE TRADE WINDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE PACIFIC AND PULSE TO STRONG BREEZE WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO GENERATE STRONG BREEZE. WINDS WILL PULSE TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE AS NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE LAND ENHANCES THE WINDS TONIGHT. $$ PAW