000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050937 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT JUL 05 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DOUGLAS HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND WAS VERY ISOLATED WITHIN 90 NM ACROSS THE E SEMICIRCLE. BASED ON THIS MINIMAL AMOUNT OF CONVECTION...DOUGLAS HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...CENTERED NEAR 23.1N 119.6W 1008 MB AT 0900 UTC MOVING NW OR 320 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WERE CONFINED WITHIN 150 NM ACROSS THE N SEMICIRCLE AND SE QUADRANT...WHERE SEAS WERE 8 TO 11 FT. CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48- 72 HOURS...AS THE REMNANT LOW OF DOUGLAS CONTINUES TO MOVE NW. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ESTIMATED FROM 16N100W TO 08N98W AND MOVING WESTWARD AND FRACTURING FROM THE N PORTION OF THIS WAVE ACROSS MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM E OF AXIS. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WWD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ESTIMATED ALONG 110W-111W FROM 08N TO 16N...WITH A RECENT ASCAT PASS SUGGESTING THAT A WEAK 1012MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS DEVELOP ALONG THE S END OF THE WAVE AND WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 09.5N109W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING FROM 10N TO 14N WITHIN 150 NM W AND 90 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES ACROSS THE NE PACIFIC AND THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A BROAD ZONE OF NE WINDS 20-25 KT TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS AND LOW AS THEY MOVE WWD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N74W TO 10N81W TO 08N98W TO 10N109W TO 08N115W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 10N126W TO 10.5N136W TO BEYOND 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 02.5N TO 06.5N E OF 85W TO COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 300 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 89W AND 99W AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN BETWEEN 109W AND 115W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1022 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR 35N134W AND EXTENDS A WEAK RIDGE SE TO JUST W OF DOUGLAS NEAR 26N125W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NW WATERS HAS DISRUPTED THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PINCH OFF A LOW THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ONLY SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS S OF 25N W OF 125W. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF DOUGLAS HAS TRANSPORTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUING OVER 2 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE GULF. THIS MOISTURE HAS BEEN HELPING TO FUEL EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND THE E CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND SHOULD OCCUR AGAIN TODAY. STRONG CROSS-EQUATORIAL S-SW SWELL HAS REACHED THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS S OF 28N WITH PERIODS IN THE 19-22 SECOND RANGE TONIGHT...AND ARE PRODUCING LARGE BREAKING WAVES ALONG THE BEACHES AND REEF LINES. THE POWERFUL WAVES WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG MOST OF THE COASTLINE FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA TO COLOMBIA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS BUILT WESTWARD TO THE S OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ARTHUR...INCREASING THE TRADE WINDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE PACIFIC AND PULSE TO 25 KT WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING 100W COUPLED WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO FUNNEL THROUGH CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND CONTINUE TONIGHT BEHIND THE PASSING TROPICAL WAVE. BY EARLY SUN MORNING...HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD SOME IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FRESH TO STRONG N-NE BREEZE WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE INVIGORATED WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. $$ STRIPLING