000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050254 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT JUL 05 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS CENTERED NEAR 22.4N 119.1W...OR ABOUT 510 NM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 05/0300 UTC MOVING NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM NE SEMICIRCLE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND DOUGLAS IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED NEAR 95W N OF 09N MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 92W AND 98W. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED NEAR 108W FROM 12N TO 20N MOVING W AROUND 25 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 103W AND 112W AS WELL AS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 16N TO 19N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N85W TO 08N95W TO 12N107W TO 13N118W TO 10N126W TO 12N134W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 91W AND BETWEEN 120 NM AND 300 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 91W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1024 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR 33N137W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE THROUGH 32N130W AND 30N120W TO 1015 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 23N110W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NW WATERS HAS DISRUPTED THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PINCH OFF A LOW THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ONLY TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS AS A RESULT. THE RIDGE EXTENDS N OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS. CONDITIONS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH DOUGLAS ARE DESCRIED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF DOUGLAS HAS TRANSPORTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE GULF. THIS MOISTURE IS HELPING TO FUEL EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND THE E CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. A CROSS-EQUATORIAL S-SW SWELL TRAIN HAS REACHED THE COAST S OF 28N WITH PERIODS IN THE 19-22 SECOND RANGE. LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE FOUND ALONG THE BEACHES AND REEF LINES. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE IN PLACE. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL WILL MOVE N ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST INTO CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS BUILT WESTWARD TO THE S OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ARTHUR...INCREASING THE TRADE WINDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE PACIFIC AND PULSE TO 25 KT WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 95W COUPLED WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALLOWED WINDS TO FUNNEL THROUGH CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLIER TODAY. THESE WINDS ARE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENS. BY EARLY SUN MORNING...HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD SOME IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FRESH TO STRONG N-NE BREEZE WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE INVIGORATED WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. $$ SCHAUER