000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042137 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI JUL 04 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS WAS CENTERED NEAR 21.8N 118.6W...OR ABOUT 485 NM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 04/2100 UTC MOVING NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 45 NM AND 150 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND DOUGLAS IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED NEAR 93W N OF 10N MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED ALONG THE S PORTION OF THE WAVE FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 89W AND 97W. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED NEAR 106W FROM 10N TO 19N MOVING W AROUND 25 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N TO 15N AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N TO 16N AND FROM 17N TO 19N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N94W TO 08N92W TO 10N107W TO 11N112W THEN CONTINUES FROM 15N116W TO 10N125W TO 11N133W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 11N133W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 87W TO COSTA RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS ALSO NOTED FROM 03N TO 07N E OF 90W TO COLOMBIA. ...DISCUSSION... A 1024 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR 34N136W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE THROUGH 32N128W INTO THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 29N114W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NW WATERS HAS DISRUPTED THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PINCH OFF A LOW THAT WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ IS ONLY TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS AS A RESULT. THE RIDGE EXTENDS N OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS. CONDITIONS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH DOUGLAS ARE DESCRIED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF DOUGLAS HAS TRANSPORTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE GULF. THIS MOISTURE IS HELPING TO FUEL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALSO NOTED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA S OF 25N. A CROSS-EQUATORIAL S-SW SWELL TRAIN HAS REACHED THE COAST S OF 24N WITH PERIODS IN THE 19-22 SECOND RANGE. LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE FOUND ALONG THE BEACHES AND REEF LINES. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE IN PLACE. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL WILL MOVE N ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST INTO CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS BUILT WESTWARD TO THE S OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ARTHUR...INCREASING THE TRADE WINDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE PACIFIC AND PULSE TO 25 KT WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND. GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 93W COUPLED WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAS ALLOWED WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH CHIVELA PASS TO REACH 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE 1624 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED THIS FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE WAS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14.5N95.5W. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE SE...AND THE HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WEAKENS. BY EARLY SUN MORNING...HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD SOME IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH A FRESH TO STRONG N-NE BREEZE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. $$ SCHAUER