000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022132 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED JUL 02 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS IS CENTERED NEAR 20.0N 116.2W...OR ABOUT ABOUT 725 KM W-SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 02/2100 UTC MOVING N-NW OR 330 DEGREES AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT...120 NM SE QUADRANT...60 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 60 NM NW QUADRANT. DOUGLAS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED NEAR 87W N OF 04N TO THE GULF OF FONSECA MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WAS PRIMARILY S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF WAVE FROM 04N TO 09N. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W THU AND WEAKEN ON FRI. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N83W TO 07N87W TO 08N106W THEN CONTINUES FROM 15N120W TO 10N124W TO 09N129W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N129W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 104W AS WELL AS WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 117W AND 122W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 13N113W EXTENDS RIDGE AXES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MAZATLAN AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 05N90W. BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGE AXES...25 KT N-NW WINDS ALOFT PARALLEL THE WEST CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST AND PASS OVER POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELIDA. ELIDA IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THIS SHEAR. CONVECTION IS ACTIVE NEAR THE SOUTHERN RIDGE AXIS. MOISTURE CONVERGED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IS BEING LIFTED BY THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. THIS IS ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY BETWEEN 90W AND 105W ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF DOUGLAS HAS TRANSPORTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER TWO INCHES TO 30N BY THU MORNING. THIS MOISTURE IS HELPING TO FUEL EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. AT THE SURFACE...A 1025 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR 37N144W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE THROUGH 32N124W TO N OF TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS NEAR 26N115W. TRADE WINDS ARE GENERALLY A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE S OF THE RIDGE AXIS. LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE N ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF 125W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-11 FT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT SOUTHERLY SWELL TRAIN WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR WED NIGHT WITH PERIODS IN THE 20-22 SECOND RANGE AND REACH THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA BY THU EVENING. LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE N ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF 130W...BUILDING SEAS UP TO 11 FT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT SOUTHERLY SWELL TRAIN WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR TONIGHT WITH PERIODS IN THE 20-22 SECOND RANGE. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL REACH THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA THU EVENING AND COVER THE ENTIRE COAST S OF 25N BY FRI AFTERNOON...BRINGING ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS. $$ SCHAUER