000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021445 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED JUL 02 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1415 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS IS CENTERED NEAR 19.7N 116.0W...OR ABOUT ABOUT 390 NM W-SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 02/1500 UTC MOVING NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND DOUGLAS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THURSDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 19N117W TO 21N114W. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 1009 MB LOW NEAR 06N90W ALONG 09N95W 08N97W TO 07N108W THEN RESUMES W OF T.S. DOUGLAS NEAR 13N120W TO 09N130W. ITCZ AXIS FROM 09N130W TO 1008 MB LOW NEAR 08N138W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 91W AND 104W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 08N E OF 80W TO COAST OF COLOMBIA AND FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 117W AND 120W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 14N112W EXTENDS A RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE 20-35 KT NW WINDS ALOFT PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO AND OVER THE REMNANT LOW OF ELIDA. AS A RESULT ANY CONVECTION GENERATED NEAR THE LOW IS SHIFTED S OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN THIS ANTICYCLONE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT CROSSES THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IS HELPING TO INDUCE THE STRONGER CONVECTION NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 91W AND 104W. THE ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 16N133W. MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH A DRY STABLE AIR MASS COVERS THE AREA N OF 12N W OF 120W AND N OF T.S. DOUGLAS E OF 120W TO OVER THE N PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF DOUGLAS IS TRANSPORTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE S PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP FUEL AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANTS OF ELIDA IS A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 17N103W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM ALONG COAST MEXICO BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND MAZATLAN. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N137W TO 25N128W. TRADE WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE S OF THE RIDGE AXIS. LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE N ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF 125W BUILDING SEAS UP TO 11 FT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT SOUTHERLY SWELL TRAIN WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR TONIGHT WITH PERIODS IN THE 16-18 SECOND RANGE. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL REACH THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA...THE COAST OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA THU NIGHT...BRINGING ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS TO THOSE COASTS. $$ PAW