000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020259 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED JUL 02 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS IS CENTERED NEAR 19.4N 115.7W...OR ABOUT 715 KM W-SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AT 02/0300 UTC MOVING NW AT 02 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60 NM NE AND 180 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND DOUGLAS IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELIDA IS NEAR 17.0N 103.4W...OR ABOUT 240 KM S-SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...MOVING SE AT 3 KT AT 02/0300 UTC. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. CONVECTION HAS WANED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF COLIMA AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF JALISCO AND MICHOACAN. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N85W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N89W 1009 MB TO 09N96W TO 05N110W TO 06N115W THEN CONTINUED FROM 14N119W TO 09N130W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N130W TO 08N135W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 60 NM AND 120 NM W QUADRANT OF LOW PRES NEAR 08N89W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS S OF THE AXIS TO 05N BETWEEN 81W AND 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 108W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 13N115W EXTENDS RIDGE AXES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND EASTWARD TOWARD NICARAGUA. BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGE AXES...20-30 KT NW WINDS ALOFT PARALLEL THE COAST AND PASS OVER TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELIDA. ELIDA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT REMAINS IN THIS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH LITTLE TO STEER IT AWAY FROM THE AREA. CONVECTION IS MORE ACTIVE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN RIDGE AXIS. MOISTURE CONVERGED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IS BEING LIFTED BY THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. THIS IS ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY E OF 110W ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W AND THE SOUTHERN RIDGE AXIS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF DOUGLAS IS TRANSPORTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER TWO INCHES TO 30N BY THU MORNING. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD HELP FUEL AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH HAS BEEN DISRUPTED BY A COLD FRONT. THE WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LIES ACROSS THE AREA FROM 32N127W TO 30N125W TO 24N114W. TRADE WINDS ARE GENERALLY A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE S OF THE RIDGE AXIS. LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE N ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF 125W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-11 FT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT SOUTHERLY SWELL TRAIN WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR WED NIGHT WITH PERIODS IN THE 20-22 SECOND RANGE AND REACH THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA BY THU EVENING. $$ SCHAUER