000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012200 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS IS CENTERED NEAR 19.2N 115.9W...OR ABOUT 745 KM W-SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AT 01/2100 UTC MOVING NW AT 04 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 120 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM NW SEMICIRCLE AND BETWEEN 90 NM AND 210 NM NE QUADRANT. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND DOUGLAS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM ELIDA IS NEAR 17.2N 103.9W...OR ABOUT 205 KM S-SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...MOVING SE AT 2 KT AT 01/2100 UTC. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 240 NM NW SEMICIRCLE AND 75 NM SE QUADRANT. ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF COLIMA AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF COLIMA AND MICHOACAN. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. SWELLS GENERATED BY ELIDA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVE.... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM NEAR 09N98W NORTHWARD TO NEAR PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MOVING NEAR 25 KT. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N84W TO 06N95W TO 09N100W THEN CONTINUES FROM 15N117W TO 10N125W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS E OF 85W TO COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS E OF 90W TO COAST. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 12N115W EXTENDS RIDGE AXES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND EASTWARD TOWARD NICARAGUA. BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGE AXES...20-30 KT NW WINDS ALOFT PARALLEL THE COAST AND PASS OVER TROPICAL STORM ELIDA. ELIDA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT REMAINS IN THIS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH LITTLE TO STEER IT AWAY FROM THE AREA. CONVECTION IS MORE ACTIVE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN RIDGE AXIS. MOISTURE CONVERGED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH IS BEING LIFTED BY THE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. THIS IS ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY E OF 90W ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AS WELL AS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LIES. THE ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W AND THE SOUTHERN RIDGE AXIS SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF DOUGLAS IS TRANSPORTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER TWO INCHES TO 30N BY THU MORNING. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD HELP FUEL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL. AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH HAS BEEN DISRUPTED BY A COLD FRONT. THE WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LIES ACROSS THE AREA FROM 32N127W TO 30N125W TO 25N113W. TRADE WINDS ARE GENERALLY A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE S OF THE RIDGE AXIS. LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE N ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF 125W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-11 FT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE NEXT SOUTHERLY SWELL TRAIN WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR WED NIGHT WITH PERIODS IN THE 20-22 SECOND RANGE. $$ SCHAUER