000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011547
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS IS CENTERED NEAR 19.1N 115.9W OR ABOUT  
465 SM...750 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 
01/1500 UTC MOVING NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 09 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. CURRENTLY NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER NW QUADRANT WITHIN 45 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.5N116W TO 19.5N116W TO 21N115W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED E OF THE 
CENTER WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21N113W TO 
19.5N112W TO 17.5N112W...AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 
FROM 19.5N114W TO 18N114.5W TO 16.5N117W. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS ARE GOING TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS...AND DOUGLAS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A REMNANT 
LOW ON FRI. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA IS STATIONARY NEAR 17.4N 104.3W OR ABOUT 
110 SM...180 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AT 01/1500 UTC. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG A BAND S OF THE CENTER 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.5N104W TO 13N103W. 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED NW OF THE CENTER WITHIN 30 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17N107W TO 21N106W. ELIDA IS EXPECTED 
TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH 
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES...OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF COLIMA 
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF COLIMA AND MICHOACAN. LIFE-THREATENING 
SURF AND RIP CURRENTS PRODUCED THE OCEAN SWELLS FROM ELIDA ARE 
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SW COAST OF MEXICO. PLEASE SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...             

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT  
09N84W TO 08N96W...THEN TURNS SW TO 05N102W WHERE IT LOSES 
IDENTITY. THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES SW OF TROPICAL STORM 
DOUGLAS NEAR 16N117W...AND CONTINUES SW TO 09N128W WHERE 
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH 
CONTINUES SW TO BEYOND 07N140W. 

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG 
THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 180 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09.5N84W TO 08N96W TO 02N108W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH WITHIN 45 NM OF 13N90W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF 14N94W.

SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED BETWEEN THE TROPICAL STORMS 
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20N106W TO 14N112W AND 
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN 45 NM OF 23.5N107W.

...DISCUSSION...                                               

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 14N111W 
WITH ITS ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE DOMINATING THE UPPER LEVELS OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 08-27N BETWEEN 99-120W. THIS IS 
PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER BOTH OF THE TROPICAL STORMS.
THE DENSE DEBRIS IS TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER ENVELOPE EXCEPT
FOR SOME MOISTURE NOW SPREADING E AND NE ACROSS THE S-CENTRAL 
GULF OF MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE NW GULF 
OF MEXICO.
 
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS W ALONG 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 90W.
AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS NOTED W OF THIS RIDGE AND E OF THE 
LARGE ANTICYCLONE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALONG 
ALONG THE RIDGE AND SW OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS IN PHASE WITH 
THE LOWER LEVEL MONSOON TROUGH AND SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED 
N AND NE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
   
AT THE SURFACE...1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 31N142W 
RIDGES SE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 17N AND W OF 125W 
ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS WITH 4-6 FT SEAS. 

LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO  
PROPAGATE N ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS E OF 125W WITH COMBINED 
SEAS OF 7-10 FT.
                                     
$$ 
NELSON