000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010935 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS IS CENTERED NEAR 18.8N 115.3W OR ABOUT 390 NM...720 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 01/0900 UTC MOVING NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 113W AND 116W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE SE OF DOUGLAS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 108W AND 112W. DOUGLAS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY FRI NIGHT. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ELIDA IS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. AT 01/0900 UTC...TROPICAL STORM ELIDA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 104.3W OR ABOUT 95 NM...180 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTH AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 102W AND 105W. ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF COLIMA AND MICHOACAN...AND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF JALISCO. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. SWELLS GENERATED BY ELIDA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N87W TO 08N97W TO 05N102W THEN RESUMES SW OF T.S. DOUGLAS NEAR 11N120W TO 08N130W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N130W TO BEYOND 09N140W. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 86W AND 88.5W. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 99W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 98W AND 101W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA. SE OF THE TROUGH...AN ELONGATED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 22N138W EXTENDING A RIDGE NORTHEAST TO NEAR 25N126W. A TROUGH EXTENDS OVER NW MEXICO AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 25N122W. AN INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUES SW TO AN UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR 15N131W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS W OF A LINE FROM 26N114W TO 20N125W TO 10N136W. ABUNDANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOTED S OF 26N AND E OF 120W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE SITUATED NEAR 16N110W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. DOUGLAS AND T.S. ELIDA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO HELPING TO INDUCE THE CONVECTION E OF 105W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1022 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 32N140W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE N WATERS MAINLY N OF 15N AND W OF 120W. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 6 FT ARE NOTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE RIDGE WILL BE REINFORCING BY ANOTHER HIGH PRES TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS TODAY...BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10 FT S OF A LINE FROM 3.4S95W TO 02N100W TO 03N116W TO 00N120W. GAP WINDS... MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT MAINLY FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC...WITH BUILDING SEAS TO NEAR 8 FT THROUGH AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF. THE 0406 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOVEMENT OF SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. $$ GR