000 AXPZ20 KNHC 302140 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC MON JUN 30 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS CENTERED NEAR 17.7N 115.0W OR ABOUT 405 NM...750 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 2100 UTC MOVING NW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS REMAIN 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. DOUGLAS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN INTENSITY TODAY AND THE WINDOW FOR ANY INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE CLOSING. DOUGLAS MAY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 112W AND 119W. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM ELIDA NEAR 17.4N 104.2W OR ABOUT 100 NM...180 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AT 2100 UTC MOVING WNW AT 2 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT THE SAME INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 101W AND 106W. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE FROM 16N96W TO 7N98W MOVING W 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 06N95W TO 09N100W THEN RESUMES W OF T.S. DOUGLAS NEAR 14N118W TO 10N125W TO 09N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 12N112W TO 21N107W. ...DISCUSSION... A SW-NE ELONGATED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION DOMINATES MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO BEYOND 32N115W AND ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 20N140W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE COVERING MOST OF THE AREA NORTH AND WEST OF TROPICAL STORMS DOUGLAS AND ELIDA. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 14N129W MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED BETWEEN THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES IS PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH EACH SYSTEM. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO HELPING TO INDUCE THE CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 81W. SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 17N E OF 125. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE SOUTH- CENTRAL WATERS TODAY...BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10 FT S OF 04N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. $$ COBB