000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301510
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC MON JUN 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 114.0W OR ABOUT 445 
NM...765 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 1500 
UTC MOVING W-NW AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
45 KT. DOUGLAS HAS NOT INTENSIFIED...BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS 
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 112W-117W. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. 

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA NEAR 17.3N 103.9W OR ABOUT 120 MILES...195 
KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AT 1500 UTC MOVING NW AT 10 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN THE SAME INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF 
ELIDA. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 16N94W TO 6N95W MOVING W 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT 
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.

 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...             

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 7N78W TO 6N85W TO 5N100W THEN 
RESUMES W OF T.S. DOUGLAS FROM 12N117W TO 8N140W. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-8N E OF 81W TO THE COAST 
OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-10N 
BETWEEN 133W-136W.

...DISCUSSION...                                               

AN ELONGATED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION DOMINATES MUCH OF THE N  
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO 
BEYOND 32N118W AND ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 20N140W. WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL 
SUBSIDENCE COVERING MOST OF THE AREA N OF 12N W OF 120W AND N OF 
25N E OF 120W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED 
NEAR 14N128W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 15N108W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. DOUGLAS AND T.S. XXX. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS 
ALSO HELPING TO INDUCE THE CONVECTION FROM 2N-8N E OF 81W. 
 
SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 17N E OF 125. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE 
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL WATERS TODAY...BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10 FT S OF 04N 
BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. GAP WINDS...                              
                                           
$$ 
DGS