000 AXPZ20 KNHC 300948 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC MON JUN 30 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS AT 30/0300 UTC. DOUGLAS IS CENTERED NEAR 16.6N 113.1W OR ABOUT 420 NM...775 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 30/0900 UTC MOVING W-NW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. DOUGLAS HAS NOT INTENSIFIED...BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM SE SEMICIRCLE. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED TO THE NW OF THE CENTER AND WITHIN 50 NM OF 18.5N114.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 111W AND 115W. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 16.5N102.5W ON THE 0600 UTC SURFACE MAP. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OR ORGANIZATION. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. THE 0428 ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM IS PRODUCING TROPICAL STRONG FORCE WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 75 NM TO THE N OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION IS NOT CLOSED YET. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BUT ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES W-NW AT ABOUT 10 KT. IN THE MEANTIME...A GALE WARNING WAS ISSUED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 07N85W TO 06N96W THEN RESUMES WEST OF T.S. DOUGLAS FROM 11N120W TO 08N130W TO 08N140W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 02N TO 08N E OF 81W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 09N BETWEEN 131W AND 137W. ...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...AN ELONGATED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION DOMINATES MUCH OF THE N WATERS WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO BEYOND 31N120W AND ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO BEYOND 20N140W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM COVERING MOST OF THE AREA N OF 12N W OF 120W AND N OF 25N E OF 120W. A TROUGH EXTENDS OVER NW MEXICO AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO NEAR 25N117W. AN INVERTED TROUGH CONTINUES SW TO AN UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR 14N126W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE SITUATED NEAR 17N107W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. DOUGLAS AND THE AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 16.5N102.5W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO HELPING TO INDUCE THE CONVECTION E OF 81W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1025 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 38N134W EXTENDS A RIDGE S AND SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR T.S. DOUGLAS. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE SEEN PER SCATTEROMETER DATA BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS TODAY...BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10 FT S OF A LINE FROM 03.4S96W TO 02N110W TO 02N116W TO 00N120W BY TONIGHT. GAP WINDS... MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT MAINLY FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC...WITH BUILDING SEAS TO NEAR 8 FT THROUGH AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF. $$ GR