000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300256
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC MON JUN 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM 
DOUGLAS AT 30/0300 UTC. T.S. DOUGLAS IS CENTERED NEAR 16.4N 
113.0W OR ABOUT 425 NM S-SW THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
AT 0300 UTC MOVING W-NW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 109W AND 115W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 
FROM 15N105W TO 17N109W. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS. 

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED AS A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 
16N102W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 100W AND 104W. THIS SYSTEM 
HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL 
WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...A SLIGHT 
INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A 
MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...             

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 09N84W TO 08N93W TO 13N99W THEN RESUMES 
13N117W TO 08N134W TO 10N126W TO 08N134W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 04N E OF 79W TO OVER 
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 
NM OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 120W AND 137W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                               

AN ELONGATED UPPER ANTICYCLONIC ROTATION EXTENDS FROM BEYOND 
20N240W ALONG 25N130W TO BEYOND 32N122W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
CONTINUES TO INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL 
SUBSIDENCE WITH A DRY AIR MASS COVERING THE AREA N OF 12N W OF 
120W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 15N126W HELPING TO ELONGATED 
THE ABOVE UPPER RIDGE. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH 
ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 
18N104W...IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION FOUR-E.
 
SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 20N W OF 120W. MAINLY MODERATE TRADES ARE 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON 
TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS.
                                             
$$ 
PAW