000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292151
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC SUN JUN 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E IS CENTERED NEAR 16.5N 111.9W OR 
ABOUT 400 NM S-SW THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AT 2500 
UTC MOVING W-NW AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
40 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY 
MONDAY. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO 
19N BETWEEN 105W AND 115W. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS. 

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED BY A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 
15N101W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 96W AND 105W. SOME 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS 
WHILE IT MOVES W-NW OR NW AT AROUND 10 KT. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS 
SYSTEM TO T.D. FOUR-E COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 
DAY OR TWO WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY W-NW TO NW. THIS SYSTEM HAS A 
MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...             

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N78W TO 08N86W TO 06N94W TO 12N99W THEN 
RESUMES 14N114W TO 10N127W TO 08N135W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 
05N BETWEEN 80W AND COLOMBIA COAST AND WITHIN 210 NM S OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 120W AND 138W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                               

A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 26N128W 
BUT HAS BECOME ELONGATED NE/SW WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE BEYOND 
32N122W AND SW BEYOND 20N140W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO  
INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH A 
DRY AIR MASS COVERING THE AREA N OF 12N W OF 120W. AN UPPER LOW 
HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 15N125W HELPING TO ELONGATED THE ABOVE UPPER 
RIDGE. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER 
ANTICYCLONE LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 17N104W...IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E.
 
SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 20N W OF 120W. MAINLY MODERATE TRADES ARE 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON 
TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS.
                                             
PULSING OF NOCTURNAL WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO BUT ARE EXPECTED DECREASE BY MON MORNING THEN RE-DEVELOP 
MONDAY EVENING TO TUE MONRING.  

$$
PAW