000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291540
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC SUN JUN 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E IS CENTERED NEAR 16.4N 110.3W OR 
ABOUT 450 NM...725 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
AT 1500Z MOVING W-NW AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A 
TROPICAL STORM THIS EVENING. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED TO THE NW OF CENTER FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 
105W AND 114W. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF 
CENTER. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 30 KT IN THE LARGE SCALE 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SE AND AWAY FROM THE CENTER...WITH AN AREA OF 
WINDS OF 20-25 KT TO THE NE OF THE CENTER BETWEEN THE DEPRESSION 
AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. 

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR 12N98W ON THE IS PRODUCING 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 
98W AND 130W. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT MOVES W-NW OR NW AT AROUND 10 KT. THE 
LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS SYSTEM A LOW CHANCE 
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...             

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO 05N90W TO 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
12N98W THEN RESUMES FROM 11N113W TO 09N130W TO 11N140W. 
SCATTERED TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 113W TO 136W.

...DISCUSSION...                                               

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA 32N137W TO 22N140W. A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 26N128W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO 
32N121W. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS SW OF THE ANTICYLONE TO 19N140. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL 
SUBSIDENCE WITH A DRY AIR MASS COVERING MOST OF THE AREA N OF 
15N W OF 115W. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION NEAR 14N125W TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. DIFFLUENT 
FLOW ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED ALONG 
THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 16N100W...IS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E.
 
SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 120W. MAINLY MODERATE TRADES ARE 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON 
TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS.
                                             
PULSING OF NOCTURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO STARTING SUN...REACHING 20-25 KT FROM 0600 TO 1200 
UTC...WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT THROUGH AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF. 

$$
DGS