000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290246
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC SUN JUN 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E IS CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 107.4W OR 
ABOUT 320 NM S-SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AT 29/0300Z MOVING W-NW 
AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 MB. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 106W AND 108W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. PLEASE 
REFER TO ADVISORIES ISSUED UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 10N96W 10N94W...OR SEVERAL 
HUNDRED MILES S-SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND IS PRODUCING 
AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 
15N BETWEEN 94W AND 101W. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS 
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT MOVES W-NW TO NW AT 9 
TO 13 KT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  
 
...TROPICAL WAVE...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 96W N OF 12N TO INLAND OVER MEXICO 
MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS JUST N OF THE 1010 MB LOW IN THE 
SPECIAL FEATURES. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...             

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 06N84W TO 1010 MB LOW 
PRES 10N96W TO 15N103W THEN RESUMES 13N110W TO 11N121W TO 
09N133W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 109W AND 112W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 113W TO 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                               

AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 29N139W WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING NE 
TO 35N135W. A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 
24N128W DOMINATES MUCH OF THE REGION WITH RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO 
32N122W AND ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ANTICYCLONE SW TO 
15N140W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY STABLE AIRMASS AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS COVERING MOST OF THE AREA N OF 11N W OF 115W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N97W TO 15N121W. UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E. THIS DIFFLUENCE IS SITUATED TO THE 
SW OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 
16N101W.   

SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 22N W OF 120W. MAINLY MODERATE TRADES ARE 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON 
TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS.
                                             
PULSING OF NOCTURNAL WINDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO... 
REACHING 20-25 KT THROUGH 1200 UTC SUN...WITH SEAS OF TO 8 FT 
THROUGH AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF. 
 
$$ 
PAW