000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282152
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC SAT JUN 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           
THE 1007 MB LOW PRES HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E. FOUR-E WAS CENTERED NEAR 14.5N 
105.8W AT 28/2100Z WITH AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 
1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 
THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 
DEGREES AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 240 NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLE AND 180 NE IN THE SE 
QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR 
ADDITIONAL STRENGHTHENING AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL 
STORM ON SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO ADVISORIES ISSUED UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC. 

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 10N94W...OR ABOUT  
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS 
PRODUCING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 
OVER THE PACIFIC FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 94W AND 99W. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO 
DEVELOP AND THERE IS A MEDIUM PROBABILITY OF THIS SYSTEM 
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...             

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRES 
NEAR 10N94W TO THE VICINITY OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E NEAR 
14N106W TO 10N120W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 118W 
AND 125W...AND WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 
123W...AND BETWEEN 130W AND 136W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...                                               

AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
NEAR 27N141W WITH ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO 35N137W. A 
LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 23N130W DOMINATES 
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO 32N125W AND 
ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ANTICYCLONE SW TO 15N140W. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE DRY 
STABLE AIRMASS AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS COVERING MOST OF 
THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 110W. AN ILL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 18N116W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E. 
THIS DIFFLUENCE WAS SITUATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 17N100W.   

SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 116W. MAINLY MODERATE TRADES ARE 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON 
TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS.
                                             
PULSING OF NOCTURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO STARTING SUN...REACHING 20-25 KT FROM 0600 TO 1200 
UTC...WITH SEAS OF UP TO 8 FT THROUGH AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF. 
 
$$ 
COBB