000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281540
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC SAT JUN 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                           
A 1007 MB LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR 14N105W WITH A CLUSTER OF 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 101W-110W. 
THE LOW IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES W-NW AT ABOUT 
10 KT. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS SYSTEM 
A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...             

THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 8N8W TO 6N85W TO A 1007 MB LOW PRES NEAR 
14N105W TO 10N120W TO 11N137W. THE ITCZ FROM 11N137W TO 11N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-15N BETWEEN 90W-
100W AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 108W-114W AND WITHIN 90 NM 
S OF AXIS FROM 133W-135W.

...DISCUSSION...                                               

AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA NEAR 27N141W WITH TROUGH NE TO 32N137W. A LARGE 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 23N129W DOMINATES MUCH OF 
THE REGION WITH RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO 32N134W AND ANOTHER RIDGE 
EXTENDING FROM THE ANTICYCLONE SW TO 15N140W. WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE DRY STABLE 
AIRMASS AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS COVERING THE AREA N OF 
15N W OF 110W. AN ILL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
IS CENTERED NEAR 18N116W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION WITH THE LOW PRES DESCRIBED ABOVE. ANOTHER UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 
16N100W. 

SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 116W. MAINLY MODERATE TRADES ARE 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON 
TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS.
                                             
PULSING OF NOCTURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO STARTING SUN...REACHING 20-25 KT FROM 0600 TO 1200 
UTC...WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT THROUGH AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF. 
 
$$ 
DGS