000 AXPZ20 KNHC 280918 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT JUN 28 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES W-NW AT ABOUT 10 KT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED MAINLY S OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AND COVERS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 103W-105W. THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS SYSTEM A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO A 1008 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 13.5N103W TO 10N118W TO 11N136W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N136W TO BEYOND 10N140W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 90W-93W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 97W-101W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 103W-112W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 120W-130W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 130W AND 135W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING JUST W OF THE FORECAST REGION NEAR 26N141W. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA...MAINLY NW OF A LINE FROM 30N135W TO 24N140W. A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 22N127W DOMINATES MUCH OF THE REGION N OF 15N W OF 118W...WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. A NEW ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 28N116W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NW MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES FROM NE MEXICO TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED JUST S OF LOS CABOS. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR 16N103W...IS OBSERVED E OF 110W AND IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH AND OVER SE MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE PERSISTS ACROSS THE N WATERS WITH AXIS ALONG 30N. MAINLY MODERATE TRADES ARE SEEN PER SCATTEROMETER DATA BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS JUST OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...PARTICULARLY N OF 25N. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUN. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED MAINLY SW OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEVELOPING LOW PRES AND IS AFFECTING THE WATERS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 102W AND 110W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT PER THE MOST RECENT ALTIMETER PASS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL...WITH PERIODS IN THE 18-19 SECOND RANGE...WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NE MAINLY ACROSS THE WATERS E OF 110W. THIS SWELL EVENT WILL REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO THIS MORNING...BRINGING ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS TO THOSE COASTS. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT IN NW SWELL ACROSS THE N WATERS...MAINLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 126W SUN NIGHT INTO MON. GAP WINDS... FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS WEEKEND...BUT MAINLY FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC...WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT THROUGH AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF BY SUN MORNING. $$ GR