000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280243
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC SAT JUN 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                        
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES S OF 
ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR 
CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY EARLY 
NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES W-NW NEAR 9 KT. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 17N BETWEEN 
101W AND 106W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...             

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 1010 MB LOW NEAR 8N91W 
THEN TO 14N106W 10N119W TO 11N136W. ITCZ FROM 11N136W TO 
11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N TO 
9N E OF 83W TO OVER PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 360 NM S OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 93W AND 
112W AND WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 117W AND 
130W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF MONSOON TROUGH TO 
COAST FROM COSTA RICA TO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN MEXICO.

...DISCUSSION...                                               

AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
NEAR 26N145W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO 31N137W. 
SYSTEM IS MOVING NW FURTHER AWAY FROM THE DISCUSSION AREA. A 
LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION DOMINATES MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA ANCHORED NEAR 22N125W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N TO NEAR 
32N125W AND ANOTHER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING E-SE TO 17N111W. WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND 
IMPLIED DRY STABLE AIRMASS COVERING THE AREA N OF 14N W OF 110W. 
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER MEXICO NEAR 23N106W TO S 
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 20N112W. A SECOND WEAK UPPER ANTICYCLONE 
IS S OF MEXICO NEAR 17N103W EXTENDING AN UPPER RIDGE E TO EL 
SALVADOR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER 
IMAGERY INDICATES THE AREA E OF 110W HAS AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP 
MOISTURE AND COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ALONG AND S THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ALONG THE COAST OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA TO MEXICO. 

SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA N OF 20N W OF 120W. MAINLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE ALONG 
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS. 
 
GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PATTERN OF FRESH BREEZES PULSING IN THE 
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 
SAT AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH STRONG BREEZE SUN NIGHT. 
 
$$ 
PAW