000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272123
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC FRI JUN 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                      
CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND 
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES S-SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH A 
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE 
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY 
EARLY NEXT WEEK. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                      

TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ANALYZED FROM 16N111W TO 12N113W HAS 
DISSIPATED AND WAS DROPPED FROM THE 27/1800 UTC ANALYSIS.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...             

THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 9N79W ALONG 7N84W TO 1009 MB LOW NEAR 
9N91W THEN TO 15N105W 10N120W TO 11N135W. ITCZ FROM 11N135W TO 
11N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM 
ALONG COAST FROM MANAGUA NICARAGUA TO OVER THE GULF OF FONSECA. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 8N E OF 
82W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 92W AND 
98W...AND FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 99W AND 104W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 
104W AND 110W...FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 116W TO 128W...AND FROM 
11N TO 14N BETWEEN 89W AND 94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...                                               

AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA NEAR 25N142W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING NE TO 31N135W. 
A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA 
ANCHORED NEAR 21N124W WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N TO NEAR 
31N125W AND ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 17N11W. WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY 
STABLE AIRMASS COVERING THE AREA N OF 14N W OF 110W. A SHARP 
UPPER TROUGH HAS DUG INTO THE AREA S OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ACROSS 
MEXICO NEAR 24N106W TO 20N110W. A SECOND WEAK UPPER ANTICYCLONE 
IS S OF MEXICO NEAR 16N103W EXTENDING AN UPPER RIDGE E TO EL 
SALVADOR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER 
IMAGERY INDICATES THE AREA E OF 110W HAS AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP 
MOISTURE AND COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ESPECIALLY THE ACTIVITY 
ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. 

SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 
20N W OF 120W. MAINLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ 
AXIS. 
 
GAP WINDS...

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PATTERN OF FRESH BREEZES PULSING IN THE 
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 
SAT AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH STRONG BREEZE SUN NIGHT. 
 
$$ 
PAW