000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271527
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC FRI JUN 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                      

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 16N111W TO 12N113W. THE WAVE IS 
FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES 
TO MOVE WESTWARD.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...             

THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N86W TO 1009 MB LOW PRES 10N92W TO 
15N105W TO 11N120W TO 11N135W. ITCZ FROM 11N135W TO 10N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 4N-12N E OF 92W TO 
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND FROM 8N-17N BETWEEN 98W AND 111W AND 
FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 111W-124W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...                                               

AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION 
AREA NEAR 25N142W WITH TROUGH NE TO 32N130W. A LARGE 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 21N124W DOMINATES MUCH OF 
THE REGION WITH RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND 
ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ANTICYCLONE SW TO 13N140W.  
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND 
IMPLIED DRY STABLE AIRMASS COVERING THE AREA N OF 16N W OF 110W. 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON 
TROUGH FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 111W-124W. 

CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTEND SEVERAL 
HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA. AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO FORM WITHIN 
THIS REGION OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE EASTERLY SHEAR 
DIMINISHES ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 15N W OF 
115W. MAINLY MODERATE TRADES ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS. 
                                             
PULSING OF NOCTURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...REACHING 20-25 KT FROM 
0600 TO 1200 UTC...WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT THROUGH AND DOWNWIND OF 
THE GULF. 

$$ 
DGS