000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270936
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC FRI JUN 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                      

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ALONG 111W FROM 09N TO 17N. THE WAVE 
IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS SEEN ON THE 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO 
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE 
WESTWARD. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...             

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 09N90W TO 11N100W TO 
08N115W TO 12N135W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 12N135W TO BEYOND 
11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
03N TO 06N E OF 79W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 84W AND 
91W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 210 NM S 
OF TROUGH BETWEEN 101W AND 117W.
 
...DISCUSSION...                                               

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING JUST W OF THE FORECAST REGION 
NEAR 25N142W. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
FEATURE IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE 
AREA...MAINLY NW OF A LINE FROM 30N130W TO 22N140W. A LARGE 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 21N125W DOMINATES MUCH OF 
THE REGION EXTENDING A RIDGE E-SE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. 
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE JUST OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND 
IMPLIED DRY AIRMASS COVERING THE AREA N OF 16N AND E OF THE 
ABOVE MENTIONED LINE.
 
CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTEND SEVERAL 
HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA. BASED ON THE GLOBAL MODELS...AN AREA OF LOW 
PRES IS EXPECTED TO FORM WITHIN THIS REGION OF DISTURBED WEATHER 
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE TRYING TO DEVELOP A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WHILE THE ECMWF AND THE UKMET KEEP A WEAK LOW 
PRES SYSTEM MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE 
FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS 
THE EASTERLY SHEAR DIMINISHES ACROSS THE REGION.
 
AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE N WATERS WITH AXIS  
ALONG 30N. MAINLY MODERATE TRADES ARE SEEN PER SCATTEROMETER 
DATA BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON 
TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS. 

CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL...WITH PERIODS IN THE 18-19 SECOND 
RANGE...IS SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS...AND WILL 
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NE MAINLY ACROSS THE WATERS E OF 110W. 
THIS SWELL EVENT WILL REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA 
AND SE MEXICO BY SAT MORNING. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT IN NW 
SWELL ACROSS THE N WATERS...MAINLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 120W AND 
126W BY SUN NIGHT. 

GAP WINDS...                                                  
PULSING OF NOCTURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...REACHING AROUND 20 KT 
FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC...WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT THROUGH AND DOWNWIND 
OF THE GULF. 

$$ 
GR