000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270250
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC FRI JUN 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                      

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 18N110W TO 11N110W MOVING W 10-
15 KT. WAVE IS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AND IS 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...             

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 9N83W ALONG 10N99W TO 
10N109W THEN RESUMES 10N113W TO 12N131W. ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED 
FROM 12N131W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION 
IS FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 81W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 87W AND 91W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S 
OF MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 100W AND 106W AND FROM 10N TO 13N W OF 
136W. SCATTERED MODERATE 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 110W AND 125W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...                                               

A LARGE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE AREA 
ANCHORED NEAR 22N118W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS E OVER S MEXICO 
NEAR MANZANILLO CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO TO OVER 
NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA TO COLOMBIA NEAR 8N76W. BOTH WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICT ABUNDANT 
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE TO THE E OF 112W. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT S OF THE 
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS ENHANCING THE VERTICAL LIFT IN THE REGION OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH ALLOWING FOR THE DEEP CONVECTION ESPECIALLY E 
OF 91W AS DESCRIBED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION ABOVE. 
THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS WEAKENED ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD 
CLOUDINESS AND AREAS OF CONVECTION. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SLOW 
DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE AREA 
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT W AND 
WEAKEN ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FORECASTED LOW.  
 
THE SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 32N140W E TO 
30N122W. THIS E/W RIDGE IS GIVING MODERATE TRADE WINDS BETWEEN 
THE SURFACE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. 

GAP WINDS...              
         
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PATTERN OF FRESH BREEZES PULSING IN THE 
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 
SAT AND COULD POSSIBLE REACH STRONG BREEZE SUN NIGHT. 

$$ 
PAW