000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262109 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC THU JUN 26 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 18N108W TO 13N109W MOVING W 10- 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 13N- 18N BETWEEN 103W-109W. WAVE IS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 9N83W ALONG 8N90W 10N97W 8N118W TO 12N130W. ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 12N130W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 78W AND 83W INCLUDING THE GULF OF PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 84W-90W...FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 90W-98W...FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 94W-105W...AND FROM 10N-13N W OF 137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 4N-9N BETWEEN 117W-117W. ...DISCUSSION... A LARGE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 130W ANCHORED NEAR 22N115W AND EXTENDING E OVER S MEXICO AND INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO TO 87W. BOTH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICT ABUNDANT DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE TO THE E OF 110W. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT S OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS ENHANCING THE VERTICAL LIFT IN THE REGION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE CONVECTION E OF 100W AS DESCRIBED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. E-NE FLOW ALOFT S OF THE RIDGE AXIS HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS DECREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH SAT MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT W AND WEAKEN ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FORECASTED LOW. THE SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH 32N140W E TO 30N122W. THIS E/W RIDGE IS GIVING MODERATE TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...E TO SE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 26/0000 UTC THIS EVENING. THIS PATTERN OF PULSING IN THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT SHOULD REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS. $$ PAW