000 AXPZ20 KNHC 261514 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC THU JUN 26 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 18N107W TO 11N110W. THE 0458 UTC ASCAT-A SCATTEROMETER PASS CONTINUED TO SHOW A WIND SHIFT AT THE SURFACE AROUND THIS PERSISTENT WAVE. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS PRIMARILY OVER WATER IN THE AREA FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 103W AND 108W. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N82W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N92W 1010 MB TO 09N107W TO 08N119W TO 12N126W TO 12N130W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 12N130W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N139W 1010 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 390 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 94W AND 99W...S OF THE AXIS TO 03N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W...AND FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 80W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 75 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 83W AND 86W AND FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 123W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM NW AND SE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 135W AND 138W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM SW SEMICIRCLE OF LOW PRES NEAR 10N139W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 21N114W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS TO ACAPULCO MEXICO THEN ONWARD OVER LAND TO BELIZE. PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF POOLED MOISTURE LIES PRIMARILY S OF THE RIDGE AXIS E OF 110W...WITH MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE AXIS IS ENHANCING THE VERTICAL LIFT IN THE REGION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE CONVECTION SEEN OVER MUCH OF THE REGION E OF 100W AS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION ABOVE. E-NE FLOW ALOFT S OF THE RIDGE AXIS HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS DECREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD...CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH SAT MORNING. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LIES OVER THE AREA FROM 32N125W TO 17N110W. TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND THE RIDGE AXIS ARE GENERALLY A MODERATE BREEZE. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE HAS BEEN WEAKENED FROM ABOVE BY AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N136W. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE NEAR 21N114W MOVES W. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AT THE SURFACE...CURRENTLY CENTERED WELL W OF THE AREA...WILL BECOME MORE VERTICALLY STACKED AND APPROACH 35N145W BY SAT MORNING. NW WINDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER THE SW U.S. ARE SENDING NW SWELL WITH SEAS OVER 8 FT INTO WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 115W-123W. SHIP A8VL6 NEAR 28N116W REPORTED 8 FT SEAS AT 1200 UTC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST HAS ALREADY WEAKEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AND THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN OF PULSING WINDS IN THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT BUT SHOULD REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS. $$ SCHAUER