000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260904 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC THU JUN 26 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED WITH A TILT FROM NE TO SW FROM 18N106W TO 12N109W AS CAPTURED BY A 0412 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS WHICH SHOWED A WIND SHIFT AT THE SURFACE. THIS WAVE IS MOVING AT 15 KT. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION THAT MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS FROM 18N TO 20N E OF 106W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 06N86W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N93W TO 10N100W TO 08N110W TO 13N131W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 13N131W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N139W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF A LINE FROM 03N78W TO 08N92W AND FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 92W AND 97W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 79W AND 84W AND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 96W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120-210 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 121W AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 135W AND 138W. ...DISCUSSION... AT UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA BETWEEN 90W AND 125W ANCHORED BY AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 21N116W AND EXTENDING E OVER SE MEXICO AND INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGING IS BUILDING WESTWARD AND NOW ALSO IS COVERING THE WATERS S OF 20N W OF 125W. BOTH WATER VAPOR AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT ABUNDANT DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 20N E OF 110W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT S OF THE RIDGE AXIS IS ENHANCING THE VERTICAL LIFT IN THE REGION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ALLOWING FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION E OF 100W. TO THE W-NW OF THE RIDGE IS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N135W WITH A TROUGH DIGGING S OVER THE FAR NW CORDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS N OF 15N W OF 110W. THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE AND ATTENDANT RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT W AND WILL REMAIN THE DOMINATING FEATURES THROUGH SAT. AT THE SURFACE...A NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKENING 1011 MB LOW REMAINS S-SW OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 21N111W. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO BE MARKED BY A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH NO CONVECTION NEARBY. A RECENT 0414 UTC ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS IS SHOWING INDICATIONS THAT THE LOW IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE INTO A REMNANT TROUGH. THE SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 31N139W SE TO 23N116W. THIS RIDGE HAS PRODUCED A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST JUST N OF DISCUSSION AREA. THIS IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 7-9 FT WITH THE RESULTANT SWELL TRAIN PROPAGATING INTO THE FAR NE WATERS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO LESS THAN 8 FT LATER THIS MORNING. A SET OF SW SWELL WITH SEAS TO 8 FT WITH PEAK WAVE PERIODS OF 18- 20 SECONDS WILL APPROACH THE EQUATOR S AND SW OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING... DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN OF PULSING WINDS IN THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT BUT WILL REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS FOLLOWING ON SUBSEQUENT NIGHTS/MORNINGS. $$ LEWITSKY