000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252110 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED JUN 25 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 102W N OF 13N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS WILL BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24- 48 HOURS AND MAY BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING TO THE S. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N TO THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 101W AND 105W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 8N78W ALONG 7N86W 10N100W 9N112W TO 1011 MB LOW NEAR 13N131W THEN TO 11N134W. ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 11N134W TO A SECOND 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N137W TO 8N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 81W AND 92W AND WITHIN 225 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM MONSOON TROUGH 126W AND 129W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 134W AND 140W. ...DISCUSSION... AT UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA BETWEEN 90W AND 125W ANCHORED NEAR 20N115W AND EXTENDING E OVER S MEXICO AND INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. BOTH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICT ABUNDANT DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE TO THE E OF 110W. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT S OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS ENHANCING THE VERTICAL LIFT IN THE REGION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE CONVECTION BETWEEN 81W-103W AS DESCRIBED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. TO THE W OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N129W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO DIG S OVER THE FAR NW CORDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA W OF 110W. THE UPPER LOW NEAR 20N129W IS FORECAST TO LIFT NW THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS WHILE IT WEAKENS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT W AS THE LOW MOVES NW AND BECOME THE DOMINATING FEATURE THU THROUGH SAT. AT THE SURFACE...THE QUASI-STATIONARY 1011 MB LOW REMAINS S OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 21N111W. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO BE MARKED BY A SWIRL OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FURTHER TO A SURFACE TROUGH BY TONIGHT. THE SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 32N140W SE TO 21N123W. THIS RIDGE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY THU TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST JUST N OF DISCUSSION AREA AND GENERATING SEAS TO 10 TO 12 FT. THE RESULTANT SWELL TRAIN IS PROPAGATING INTO THE FAR NE WATERS GIVING THE AREA SEAS TO 8FT THROUGH THU EVENING. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...SE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE AGAIN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING THU BEFORE DIMINISHING. THIS PATTERN OF PULSING IN THE NIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WILL REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS. $$ PAW