000 AXPZ20 KNHC 251524 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED JUN 25 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1400 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 102W N OF 12N MOVING W AT 10- 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OFFSHORE FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 94W-104W. THIS WAVE SHOULD BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND MAY BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING TO THE S. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO 06N82W TO 10N100W TO 09N115W TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N131W 1011 MB TO 11N134W. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 11N134W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N137W 1011 MB TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS BETWEEN 60 NM AND 180 NM NE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 94W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 75 NM N AND 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 97W AND 107W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 90 NM N AND 60 NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 135W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 20N115W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS TO MANZANILLO MEXICO THEN ONWARD OVER LAND TO BELIZE. A LARGE AREA OF POOLED MOISTURE LIES S OF THE RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN 90W-105W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE AXIS IS ENHANCING THE VERTICAL LIFT IN THE REGION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR THE ACTIVE CONVECTION BETWEEN 89W-107W DESCRIBED IN THE SECTIONS ABOVE. THE 25-30 KT EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT CURRENTLY IN THIS REGION S OF 13N SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALLOWING MORE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD...CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LIES OVER THE AREA FROM 32N130W TO 17N100W. TRADE WINDS BETWEEN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE RIDGE AXIS ARE GENERALLY A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE. SHORT-WAVE INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AT 13N131W. WEAK CONVECTION NEAR THIS LOW IS SHEARED TO THE E BY WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ON THE S SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR 21N128W. THE ASCAT-B PASS FROM 0612 UTC SHOWED 20-25 KT TRADE WINDS E OF THE LOW WHERE A NORTHERN KINK IN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS GENERATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NW INTO THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ENTERING NW WATERS. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE SHEAR OVER THE SURFACE LOW IF IT REMAINS IN TACT...POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR SOME MODEST DEVELOPMENT. NW WINDS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND TROUGHING OVER THE SW U.S. ARE SENDING NW SWELL WITH SEAS OVER 8 FT INTO WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 118W-124W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL WEAKEN BY THU...WITH SWELL SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THU AFTERNOON. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A 0336 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH CORRESPONDING SEAS LIKELY UP TO 8 FT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS DURING THE NEXT 2 NIGHTS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASING BACK TO 25 KT DURING PEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. $$ SCHAUER