000 AXPZ20 KNHC 250930 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED JUN 25 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 101W N OF 14N CONTINUING NORTHWARD AND INLAND INTO SW MEXICO MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 14N BETWEEN 98W AND 100W...AND ALSO FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 101W AND 105W. A 0338 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED A WIND SHIFT NEAR THE WAVE AXIS...WITH ONLY 5-10 KT NEARBY. THIS WAVE SHOULD BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND MAY BECOME ABSORBED INTO BROAD TROUGHING LOCATED TO THE NW-W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM LOW PRES 09N78W TO 06N80W TO 10N100W TO 08N113W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N124W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N137W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N137W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 05N E OF 80W...WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 100W...AND ALSO WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 107W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 116W. ...DISCUSSION... AT UPPER LEVELS...THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY TWO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONES. THE FIRST ONE IS CENTERED NEAR 13N129W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W-NW TO 17N140W. ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE IS SITUATED SW OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 20N115W WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NW TO 30N123W...AND TO THE E-SE ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PROVIDING FOR A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE. IN BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONES... A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS MOVING WESTWARD CENTERED NEAR 19N128W. WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA SW INTO THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC NEAR TO NEAR 12N90W. TO THE SE...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AROUND AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA IS PROVIDING FOR A VERY CONDUCIVE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION S OF PANAMA AND W OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO 80W. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK AND NEARLY STATIONARY 1011 MB LOW PRES IS NOTED TO THE S-SW OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 20N111W. THIS LOW IS MARKED BY A SWIRL OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE CENTER. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS PRESENT AND NEARBY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 5-10 KT WITH SEAS 4-7 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY OPEN UP INTO A SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. A 1012 MB LOW PRES IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N124W. A 0520 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO THE NW OF THE LOW WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS TIGHT BETWEEN THE LOW AND RIDGING TO THE N. THESE WINDS ARE SUPPORTING SEAS UP TO 8 FT. EXPECT THE WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH/SUBSIDE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES SLIGHTLY. A 1011 MB LOW PRES IS TO THE W ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 09N137W MOVING W AROUND 5-10 KT. A 0658 UTC ASCAT PASS ONLY SHOWED 15 KT NEAR THE LOW WHILE AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED 4-6 FT SEAS. A 1026 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 32N136W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE TO 19N122W. THIS RIDGE COMBINED WITH TROUGHING OVER INTERIOR CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW-N WINDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH IS BUILDING SEAS TO 8-11 FT. THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE SEAS IS MANAGING TO PROPAGATE JUST S INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W... WITH THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS BEFORE WINDS TO THE N AND THE RESULTANT SEAS SUBSIDE. GAP WINDS... GULF OF PAPAGAYO...A 0336 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WITH CORRESPONDING SEAS LIKELY UP TO 8 FT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS DURING THE NEXT 2 NIGHTS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASING BACK TO 25 KT DURING PEAK NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. $$ LEWITSKY