000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250232
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
0405 UTC WED JUN 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                      
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 100W N OF 14N TO ACROSS SE MEXICO MOVING 
W 15 KT. ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT MOISTURE 
THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...             

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N77W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 
07N81W TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 11N88W ALONG 09N98W TO 10N105W TO 
09N113W TO 1011 MB LOW NEAR 13N124W TO 1010 MB LOW NEAR 10N136W 
TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 103W AND 106W AND FROM 08N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 103W AND 109W. 


...DISCUSSION...         

AT UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA BETWEEN 
90W AND 118W ANCHORED NEAR 19N111W AND EXTENDING E OVER S MEXICO 
AND INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AROUND ON THE 
E SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUNCE TO 
DEVELOP THE CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ 
ABOVE AND PUSH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OFF 
MEXICO WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN EL SALVADOR AND 
BAHIA DE BANDERAS. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NW TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA GIVING 
THE AREA S OF 15N WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT 
AROUND THIS UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF 
PANAMA AND COAST RICA. BOTH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICT ABUNDANT DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE 
TO THE E OF THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N127W. THIS UPPER LOW  
ENCOMPASSES THE AREA WHERE THE 1011 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 
13N123W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 18N124W. 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR COVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW NEAR 19N127W IS FORECAST TO 
LIFT NW THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS...WHILE WEAKENING WHILE THE 
LARGE UPPER RIDGE NEAR 19N111W WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT W AS THE LOW 
MOVES NW AND BECOME THE DOMINATING FEATURE THU THROUGH FRI. 
  
AT THE SURFACE...THE WEAKENING 1011 MB LOW IS NOTED TO THE S OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 20N111W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS LOW 
IS MARKED BY A SWIRL OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE WESTERN 
SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FURTHER TO A 
SURFACE TROUGH BY WED. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ARE 20 KT 
OR LESS AND POSSIBLE 8 FT SEAS SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT. 

A 1025 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 32N136W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS 
SE TO 21N123W. THIS RIDGE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH WED... 
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA TO  
PRODUCE FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE N OF DISCUSSION AREA ALONG THE 
CALIFORNIA COAST AND GENERATING SEAS TO 10 FT. THE RESULTANT 
SWELL TRAIN WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE FAR NE WATERS WED AFTERNOON 
THEN SUBSIDING AGAIN THU EVENING. 

GAP WINDS...                                            
         
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...SE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL BEGIN 
OVERNIGHT THEN PULSE WED FINALLY DIMINISHING THU NIGHT AS THE 
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUE TO 
INCREASE. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD UP TO 8 FT DOWNWIND OF THE 
IMMEDIATE GULF.

$$
PAW