000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242120
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
2205 UTC TUE JUN 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 98W N OF 12N TO ACROSS SE MEXICO MOVING W
20 KT. ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN ABUNDANT MOISTURE THERE
IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...             

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N88W 
1010 MB TO 09N98W TO 10N106W TO 08N113W TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N124W 
1012 MB TO SECOND LOW PRES NEAR 10N136W 1012 MB. ITCZ BEGINS 
NEAR 10N136W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 104W AND 110W AND FROM
02N TO 06N BETWEEN 101W AND 106W. 

...DISCUSSION...         

AT UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA BETWEEN 
90W AND 118W ANCHORED NEAR 18N111W AND EXTENDING E OVER S MEXICO 
AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AROUND ON THE 
E SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUNCE TO 
DEVELOP THE CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ 
ABOVE. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS 
A RIDGE AXIS NW TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA GIVING THE AREA S OF 15N 
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AROUND THIS UPPER 
RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED STRONG IN THE GULF OF PANAMA N OF 
06N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. BOTH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY DEPICT ABUNDANT DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE 
TO THE E OF THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N126W. THIS UPPER LOW  
ENCOMPASSES THE AREA WHERE THE EASTERN MOST 1012 MB LOW NEAR 
13N124W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 18N124W. 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR COVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW NEAR 18N126W IS FORECAST TO 
LIFT NW THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS...WHILE WEAKENING WHILE THE 
LARGE UPPER RIDGE NEAR 18N111W WILL REMAIN GRADUALLY SHIT W AS 
THE LOW MOVES NW AND BECOME THE DOMINATING FEATURE THU THROUGH 
FRI. 
  
AT THE SURFACE...THE WEAKENING 1010 MB LOW IS NOTED TO THE S OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 20N111W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS LOW 
IS MARKED BY A SWIRL OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 110W AND 112W AND IS 
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FURTHER TO A TROUGH WED. WINDS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ARE 20 KT OR LESS AND POSSIBLE 8 FT 
SEAS SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT. 

A 1025 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND 
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N132W TO 21N120W. THIS RIDGE 
WILL EXPAND EASTWARD TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OFF THE 
COAST OF CALIFORNIA PRODUCING FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW-N 
WINDS TO THE N OF 32N ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND GENERATING 
SEAS TO 10 FT. THE RESULTANT SWELL TRAIN WITH THESE WINDS WILL
PROPAGATE INTO THE FAR NE WATERS WED AFTERNOON THEN SUBSIDING
AGAIN THU EVENING. 

GAP WINDS...                                            
         
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE FROM 20 TO 25 KT 
DURING THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS TRADE 
WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUE TO INCREASE. 
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD UP TO 8 FT DOWNWIND OF THE IMMEDIATE 
GULF.

$$
PAW