000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241554
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1605 UTC TUE JUN 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W N OF 13N TO ACROSS SE MEXICO AND 
BAY OF CAMPECHE IS MOVING WNW AROUND 15 KT. DEEP CONVECTION IS 
VERY MINIMAL WITH THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM OF 15N96W. THE WAVE IS FORECAST 
TO MOVE INLAND MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N79W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
09N87W 1010 MB TO 10N95W TO 09N101W TO 13N106W. IT RESUMES AT 
12N119W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N136W 1010 MB AND TO 07N140W. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED TO THE N OF 
03N AND E OF 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 100W-105W..FROM 03N-11N BETWEEN      
105W-110W...AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 94W-96W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH 
BETWEEN 125W-129W. 

...DISCUSSION...         

AT UPPER LEVELS...THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY TWO LARGE UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONES. THE FIRST ONE IS CENTERED NEAR 17N134W WITH ITS 
AXIS STRETCHING NNE THROUGH 20N134W TO 24N131W TO 27N123W. 
ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT TO THE N OF 09N AND W OF 
128W. OVER THE FAR EASTERN SECTION OF THE AREA...ANOTHER 
ANTICYCLONE IS W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO NEAR 20N110W. ITS 
ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE N OF 12N AND 
TO THE E OF 119W. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A MID/UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONE IS MOVING WESTWARD CENTERED NEAR 18N125W. WEAK 
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA SW 
TO OVER EASTERN HONDURAS. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AROUND AN 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA IS PROVIDING FOR A 
VERY CONDUCIVE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION S OF 
PANAMA AND W OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO 82W AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. 
BOTH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION 
DEPICT ABUNDANT DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO THE E OF THE 
MID/UPPER CYCLONE AT 18N125W...AND N OF THE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED 
20N110W TO NEAR 25N. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE...AND  
ASSOCIATED DRY AND STABLE AIR COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
AREA...EXCEPT FOR S OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER CYCLONE AND 
ANTICYCLONE AT 17N134W WHERE MOISTURE IS ALSO OBSERVED... 
ALTHOUGH NOT AS DEEP AS THAT OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE 
AREA. ONLY SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE 
NOTED WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 120W.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AT 18N125W IS FORECAST TO LIFT NW 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HRS...WHILE WEAKENING. THE ANTICYCLONE OVER 
THE EASTERN SECTION NEAR 20N110W WILL SHIFT NW TO NEAR 21N115W 
BY EARLY ON THU AS THE ANTICYCLONE NEAR 17N134W LOSES ITS 
IDENTITY. 
  
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING 1010 MB LOW IS NOTED TO THE SSW    
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 21N111W AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS 
LOW IS MARKED BY A SWIRL OF MOSTLY BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND 
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 19N 
TO 21N BETWEEN 109W-112W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY 
WEAKEN TO A TROUGH WED. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ARE ABOUT 
15-20 KT WITHIN 60 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS ESTIMATED
TO BE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE.

A 1024 MB HIGH CENTER IS ANALYZED JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION 
WATERS NEAR 33N134W. IT EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO 26N127W...AND TO 
NEAR 21N121W. MAINLY MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS 
COVER THE WATERS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE N OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON 
TROUGH AND W OF 113W.

TO THE S OF THE RIDGING...SW MONSOONAL FLOW REMAINS AT MODERATE 
TO LOCALLY FRESH LEVELS WHICH IS SUPPORTING SEAS IN THE GENERAL 
RANGE OF 5-7 FT S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 120W. THESE SEAS 
ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. A   
WEAK 1010 MB LOW EMBEDDED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N137W 
WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IT IS EXPECTED TO 
WEAKEN TO A TROUGH THEREAFTER.

FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW-N WINDS N OF 32N ALONG THE 
CALIFORNIA COAST ARE GENERATING SEAS TO 10 FT. THE RESULTANT 
SWELL TRAIN WITH THIS AREA OF WINDS WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE FAR 
N CENTRAL AND NE WATERS BEGINNING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS WITH SEAS OF 
8 FT...BUILDING TO 9 FT BY 48 HOURS. LOWER SEAS...IN THE RANGE 
OF 5-7 FT...ARE FORECAST ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO 25 KT DURING 
THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS TRADE WINDS 
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUE TO INCREASE. SEAS ARE 
FORECAST TO BUILD UP TO 8 FT DOWNWIND OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF.

$$
AGUIRRE