000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240926
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                           
1005 UTC TUE JUN 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF 
CAMPECHE TO THE N EXTENDS S INTO THE E PACIFIC ALONG 94W TO 13N 
MOVING W-NW AROUND 15 KT. CONVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE HAS 
DIMINISHED AND BECOME MORE SPORADIC DURING THE PAST SEVERAL 
HOURS...WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS N OF 13N WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE 
INTO MAINLAND MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH LITTLE 
IMPACT OVER THE E PACIFIC WATERS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO LOW PRES      
NEAR 09N87W TO 10N108W...THEN RESUMES FROM 13N116W TO 11N134W. 
THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N34W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N137W TO 
07N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION     
IS N OF 02N E OF 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM IN THE N QUADRANT OF THE LOW NEAR 
09N87W...FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 97W AND 101W...FROM 07N TO 09N 
BETWEEN 99W AND 101W...WITHIN 150 NM SE OF A LINE FROM 07N103W 
TO 05N109W...WITHIN 150 NM N OF A LINE FROM 08N105W TO 06N110W 
...FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 121W AND 125W...AND ALSO FROM 09N TO 
12N BETWEEN 125W AND 127W.

...DISCUSSION...         

AT UPPER LEVELS...THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY TWO LARGE UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONES. THE FIRST ONE IS CENTERED NEAR 17N133W WITH ITS 
ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING N OF 12N W OF 128W. OVER 
THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE IS 
SITUATED JUST W OF THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 20N108W EXTENDING 
BETWEEN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND 118W. IN BETWEEN THESE 
TWO FEATURES...A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE IS MOVING WESTWARD 
CENTERED NEAR 17N124W. WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING 
EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA SW INTO THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC NEAR 
TO NEAR 10N93W AND IS INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE THERE. 
TO THE SE...DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AROUND AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED 
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA IS PROVIDING FOR A VERY CONDUCIVE UPPER 
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION S OF PANAMA AND W OF THE 
COAST OF COLOMBIA TO 81W.
 
ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...A 1009 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM S OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA NEAR 21N111W IS DRIFTING NW. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE LOW HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS 
WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30  
NM S OF A LINE FROM 20N106W TO 20N110W. CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION LOCATED ABOUT 200 NM TO THE NE OF THE SURFACE 
LOW...WHILE AN OVERNIGHT SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS AIDED IN THE 
POSITIONING OF THE LLVL CENTER. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR FROM 
THE COOLER PACIFIC WATERS TO THE NW APPEARS TO HAVE WRAPPED INTO 
THE SW AND S SIDES OF THE BROAD LOW CIRCULATION...AND WILL 
LIKELY LEAD TO THE CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE LOW DURING THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. ASSOCIATED WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR 
LESS WHILE A SMALL AREA OF RESIDUAL SEAS TO 8 FT REMAINS ON THE 
NW SIDE OF THE LOW. 

1027 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS 
NEAR 34.5N133W AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE TO NEAR 23N115W. 
MAINLY MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS COVER THE 
WATERS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE N OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AND W 
OF 113W.

TO THE S OF THE RIDGING...SW MONSOONAL FLOW REMAINS AT MODERATE 
TO LOCALLY FRESH LEVELS WHICH IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SEAS TO 8 
FT IN MIXED SE AND SW SWELL S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 112W 
AND 132W. THESE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT ON 
WED. A WEAK 1009 MB LOW EMBEDDED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 
10N137W WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. A 
SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT EXISTS TO THE N OF THE LOW/ITCZ AND S 
OF THE RIDGE TO THE N TO PRODUCE A ZONE OF 15-20 KT NE TO E 
WINDS BETWEEN 125W AND 135W WHERE SEAS ARE RUNNING AT 5-7 FT.

FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NW-N WINDS CURRENTLY BLOWING N OF THE 
AREA ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST ARE GENERATING SEAS AT 8-11 FT 
WHICH WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE FAR N CENTRAL AND NE WATERS WITHIN 
24 HOURS WITH 8-9 FT SEAS EXPECTED N OF 27N BETWEEN 118W AND 
123W BY 48 HOURS...AND 5-7 FT ALONG THE W COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA THROUGHOUT THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

GAP WINDS...                                                     
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PULSE TO 25 KT DURING 
THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AS TRADEWINDS E OF 
CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE W CARIBBEAN SEA INCREASE. SEAS WILL BUILD 
TO UP TO 8 FT DOWNWIND OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF WATERS DURING THE 
STRONGEST WINDS.
 
$$
LEWITSKY